NFL 2025: New York Jets Over/Under For Wins

• NFL 2025 oddsmakers have the New York Jets over-under wins at 5.5 with the odds tilted heavily toward the over
• New York has a new head coach, Aaron Glenn, and a new general manager, Darren Mougey
• They also moved on from quarterback Aaron Rodgers, letting the future Hall of Famer go and signing Justin Fields to be their new starter
• The Jets were 5-12 in 2024, and it was the familiar disarray their fans have unfortunately grown accustomed to

The New New York Jets (Again)

And it’s another new head coach (Aaron Glenn), new general manager (Darren Mougey), new quarterback (Justin Fields), and new start with the same owner (Woody Johnson).

At least they’re consistent. Given their history under Johnson, it’s safe to assume that there will be another restart four or five years from now.

Glenn is well-regarded after his time spent as the Lions‘ defensive coordinator under Dan Campbell. Before that, he worked for Sean Payton as the Saints’ defensive backs coach.

He has a Jets lineage as a player, having been selected 12th overall in the 1994 NFL Draft and spending eight years with the franchise, where he was a shutdown cornerback and a three-time Pro Bowler during the Bill Parcells era.

He’s no-nonsense and understands how to function in a big market. He won’t be overwhelmed by the glaring lights as the past two Jets full-time head coaches, Robert Saleh and Adam Gase, appeared to be at times.

Still, it’s the Jets and this is another reboot. The expectations will be somewhat muted given that it’s his first year and he’s taking over a franchise that has not had a winning season since 2015 and has not made the playoffs since 2010. Johnson will give Glenn leeway, particularly since he, not his brother Christopher Johnson, chose to hire him. That was one factor that led to the rapid and unexpected dismissal of Saleh early last season.

Justin Fields Is a Reclamation Project

Fields was selected in the 2021 draft out of Ohio State by the Bears, nine picks after the Jets took Zach Wilson second overall out of BYU. He can’t be any worse than Wilson was and has at least had some moderate success in the league. Fields and Wilson are both on team number three. Wilson will back up Tua Tagovailoa in Miami. Fields is expected to start for the Jets.

Fields started six games for the Steelers in 2024, accruing a 4-2 record before being replaced by veteran Russell Wilson. Pittsburgh still used Fields regularly for certain packages that needed the threat of a quarterback run.

He did not play poorly, but was on a very tightly-controlled game plan with low-risk passes and a focus on the running game.

The Jets can play a similar offense to the Steelers. They have two effective running backs, Breece Hall and Braelon Allen. Their offensive line is rapidly improving and added first-round selection Armand Membou out of Missouri. They have two pass-catching tight ends in Jeremy Ruckert and second-round pick out of LSU, Mason Taylor. At wide receiver, they have a budding star in Garrett Wilson, and they took Arian Smith in the fourth round out of Georgia.

The Jets’ Defensive Strengths Are Right Up Glenn’s Alley

The Jets’ secondary could be among the best in the league. They recently gave cornerback Sauce Gardner a four-year, $120.4 million contract extension. In the draft, they took cornerback Azareye’h Thomas from Florida State in the third round. They also signed defensive back Brandon Stephens away from the Ravens.

Defensive lineman Quinnen Williams has made three straight Pro Bowls. Defensive end Will McDonald had 10.5 sacks in 2024.

The Jets’ Schedule Has Openings To Accumulate Some Victories

In the AFC East, they will play the Bills, Patriots, and Dolphins twice each.

Their first game of the 2025 season is at home against Rodgers and the Steelers. Never let it be said that the league does not have a sense of humor.

They also host the Cowboys, Broncos, Panthers, Browns, and Falcons. They travel to play the Buccaneers, Bengals, Ravens, Jaguars, and Saints.

Jets Over/Under For Wins

Fields is the key. If he can run the offense competently, maintain the threat of the pass, is efficient, and doesn’t turn the ball over, the Jets have enough good players that they can not only get beyond 5.5 wins, but be an under-the-radar Wild Card contender.

But that’s a huge “if” given his history and that his past coaches have not trusted him, keeping him straitjacketed.

The schedule can benefit them. On paper, they’re better than the Patriots. They can certainly beat the Panthers, Browns, Cowboys, Jaguars, and Saints. They should be competitive against every opponent.

Again, it comes down to Fields.

It benefits the Jets that they are not wedded to him as they were with Wilson in trying to justify drafting him with a GM and coach whose jobs were on the line with his success or failure. They only committed $30 million guaranteed to Fields, so if he’s not playing well, Glenn will not hesitate to put veteran Tyrod Taylor in.

This is a decent team with a serious coach with great potential in his first head job. He’ll want to overachieve. Based on the low number of wins the oddsmakers are expecting, the Jets will go beyond 5.5 wins and could be a surprise team in the league.