NFL 2025: New Orleans Saints Over/Under For Wins

• NFL oddsmakers have set the new look New Orleans Saints’ over-under wins at 5.5 and are leaning heavily toward the under
• The Saints were 5-12 in a nightmarish 2024 season, costing head coach Dennis Allen his job at midseason
• Quarterback Derek Carr was forced to retire due to a shoulder injury
• They hired Kellen Moore as head coach and drafted QB Tyler Shough out of Louisville 40th overall

Kellen Moore Gets His 1st Head Coaching Gig

After former NFL quarterback Kellen Moore won a Super Bowl as the Eagles‘ offensive coordinator in 2024, the Saints hired him to be their new head coach.

The 36-year-old Moore has a similar resume to Sean Payton, who won a Super Bowl as Saints’ head coach. Both were briefly quarterbacks in the NFL; both worked as respected and innovative offensive coordinators; and both are known as quarterback whisperers.

Bluntly, this is an advantageous situation for a first-time head coach. There are few expectations as the Saints reboot, and Moore will get a reasonable pass for the first year or two as long as the team behaves professionally and shows improvement.

Carr’s Retirement Gives New Orleans a Fresh Start at QB

There’s a prevailing perception that Derek Carr’s two years in New Orleans were horrific. When looking at the numbers, he played well. In 27 games, he threw for 40 TDs and was picked off 13 times. The team had a 14-13 record in his starts.

Still, given the state of the rest of the team, having a 34-year-old starting quarterback who was breaking down physically would hinder them as an organization.

Carr’s replacements, Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener, are still on the roster. They also signed Hunter Dekkers, who played for Iowa State but was banned from the NCAA because he had bet on one of his team’s games. He didn’t play, and he bet on them to win.

The QB of the future is Tyler Shough, selected in the second round of the 2025 NFL Draft out of Louisville.

This Is Not a Full-Blown Rebuild

The Saints did not clean house during the offseason. To the contrary, they signed safety Justin Reid away from the Chiefs, and retained defensive lineman Chase Young and wide receiver Juwan Johnson with three-year contract extensions.

They could have traded running back Alvin Kamara, but didn’t. That, however, does not mean Kamara will be a Saints player for the entire 2025 season. A trade could and likely will happen at the trade deadline or before.

Star wide receiver Chris Olave was limited to eight games in 2024 due to concussions, but is expected to be healthy for 2025.

New Orleans didn’t focus on any specific area in the draft. As mentioned earlier, they took Shough in the second round. They selected All-American offensive lineman Kelvin Banks ninth overall out of Texas. Vernon Broughton, a defensive tackle also out of Texas, was taken in the third round.

They Have a Workable Schedule

In the NFC South, they play the Panthers, Buccaneers, and Falcons twice each. They host the Cardinals, 49ers, Giants, Patriots, and Jets. On the road, they visit the Seahawks, Bills, Bears, Rams, Dolphins, and Titans.

Saints Over/Under For Wins

When assessing the 2025 Saints, several key factors come into play. They have a rookie head coach and a blank slate at quarterback. The NFC South isn’t exactly a powerhouse, but currently, the Bucs, Falcons, and Panthers are better on paper than the Saints are. The rest of their schedule has teams with similar questions to the Saints.

They do not even have a trustworthy veteran QB on the roster to play while they’re getting Shough acclimated to the league.

The Saints have some good players on both sides of the ball. If Shough plays reasonably well, they could be better than expected. They’re not a playoff team, but it’s a worthwhile gamble to say they’ll win more than 5.5 games.