NFL 2025: New England Patriots Over/Under For Wins

• For the 2025 NFL season, the Patriots’ over-under wins have been posted at 8.5
• This is a very enthusiastic assessment given that they were 4-13 in 2024 and showed little improvement from the previous year
• Mike Vrabel, a 3X Super Bowl winner under Bill Belichick, takes over as head coach in New England
• Quarterback Drake Maye enters his second season after a Pro Bowl rookie year

Back to the “Patriot Way” With Vrabel?

The Patriots have been a study in turmoil since Tom Brady left to join the Buccaneers. The downward spiral has engulfed former head coach Bill Belichick, his replacement, Jerod Mayo, and Brady’s replacement, Mac Jones. It has sparked a publicity blitz from owner Bob Kraft to justify his role in the long-gone dynasty, as he hopes a return to the past with Mike Vrabel will result in a return to glory.

The ongoing passive-aggressive sniping between Kraft and Belichick is a source of amusement, but won’t affect the team on the field.

Still, Kraft received justified criticism for his quick trigger on Mayo, the handpicked head coach he hired to replace Belichick.

Was one full season enough to make a fair evaluation of Mayo after he’d never before been a head coach and was replacing arguably the greatest coach in history?

The team was bad; it was in disarray; his style was haphazard. That aside, remember that the Patriots went 4-13 under Mayo and went 4-13 the previous year under Belichick.

The key here seems to be that Vrabel was available, and had the Patriots not struck quickly to hire him, someone else would have. Mayo was unprepared to be a head coach, and he was coaching a bad team. If they wanted Vrabel, then they were obligated to hire him and endure the backlash for firing Mayo so quickly.

New England Had an Aggressive Offseason

The Patriots have a solid foundation on which Vrabel can build. Quarterback Drake Maye completed two-thirds of his passes, had 15 TD passes, and 10 picks. He had a solid 88.1 passer rating, rushed for 421 yards on 54 carries, and made the Pro Bowl.

Rhamondre Stevenson ran for 801 yards, tight end Hunter Henry and wide receiver Demario Douglas both caught 66 balls, and cornerback Christian Gonzalez is already a star.

They added cornerback Carlton Davis from the Lions, wide receiver Stefon Diggs from the Texans, defensive tackle Milton Williams from the Eagles, linebacker Harold Landry from the Titans, linebacker Robert Spillane from the Raiders, and several other veteran players.

Josh Dobbs will be Maye’s backup.

In the draft, they took All-American offensive tackle Will Campbell from LSU, widely regarded as the best lineman in college football. In the second round, they selected Treveyon Henderson, a running back out of Ohio State. He led the Big 10 in yards per rushing attempt at 7.1.

They Have a Weak Schedule

In the AFC East, they play the Bills, Dolphins, and Jets twice. They host the Raiders, Steelers, Panthers, Browns, Falcons, and Giants. On the road, they play the Saints, Titans, Buccaneers, Bengals, and Ravens.

Patriots Over/Under For Wins

Amid all the hoopla and excitement of Vrabel coming “home” to restore the “Patriot Way” (which, ironically, Belichick wrote in his book, doesn’t even exist), it’s obscured that his last two seasons as Titans head coach did not go well, with a combined record of 13-21.

Vrabel is experienced and has immediate credibility, something Mayo did not have. With Maye, they have a potential franchise quarterback. The offseason was productive, and they will undoubtedly be better in part because of coaching and in part because of a weak schedule.

The question is, will they get to 9 wins? A jump from 4-13 to 9-8 is not out of the question, but it’s unlikely. They will fall below 8.5 wins.