NFL 2025: Minnesota Vikings Over/Under For Wins

• Oddsmakers have the Minnesota Vikings’ over-under wins at 8.5 for the 2025 NFL season
• This is a major step back from their surprising 14-3 record in 2024
• The season ended in disappointment as they lost to the Rams in the Wild Card
• They allowed quarterback Sam Darnold to walk as a free agent and will hand the reins to former Michigan standout J.J. McCarthy

Vikings Throw Their Chips on McCarthy

Give credit to the Vikings, head coach Kevin O’Connell, and general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah for refusing to deviate from their long-term plans. They planned to start rookie J.J. McCarthy in 2024 before a meniscus tear was discovered in his right knee during training camp. Once McCarthy went down, they turned to veteran Sam Darnold.

Darnold led Minnesota to a 14-3 record, threw for 35 touchdowns against 12 interceptions, compiled 4,319 yards through the air, and made the Pro Bowl. His performance and subsequent free agency raised questions about whether the Vikings would sign him to a long-term deal, place a franchise tag on him to keep him with the team for another year, or let him walk, allowing the team to hand the reins — as planned — to McCarthy.

They chose the last option.

It’s admirable and risky. Head coach Kevin O’Connell has a good reputation with quarterbacks, but McCarthy is, for all intents and purposes, a rookie taking over for a Pro Bowler in Darnold, who the Vikings simply allowed to walk out the door to the Seahawks.

There will be a learning curve that O’Connell and offensive coordinator Wes Phillips will undoubtedly account for, but even excellent first-year starting QBs have their lapses.

Sam Howell was acquired from the Seahawks to back up McCarthy. They also signed veteran Brett Rypien and college QB Max Brosmer out of the University of Minnesota.

The Defensive and Offensive Lines Were an Offseason Focus

The trenches are often where championships are won and lost. The Vikings have faltered in the Wild Card in O’Connell’s first and third seasons as head coach, despite winning a combined 27 games. In the second season, they finished 7-10 as quarterback Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles at midseason.

Of course, teams that win 13 and 14 games in a season expect to get a bye to the Divisional Round. But the Vikings didn’t and were beaten in the Wild Card in both years.

On the defensive line, they added Jonathan Allen from the Commanders and Javon Hargrave from the 49ers. In the third round of the 2025 NFL Draft, they selected Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins from Georgia.

On the offensive line, they signed guard Will Fries and center Ryan Kelly away from the Colts. In the first round of the draft, they took OL Donovan Jackson out of Ohio State.

McCarthy was given a new backfield weapon with the signing of Jordan Mason away from the 49ers to team with Aaron Jones. Mason filled in admirably for Christian McCaffrey with San Francisco, averaging 5.2 yards per carry and rushing for 789 yards in 12 games. He is a noteworthy addition to the receiving corps of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and tight end T.J. Hockenson. They also selected Tai Felton out of Maryland in the third round. He caught 96 balls as a senior.

Their 2025 Schedule Is Challenging

The NFC North is one of the toughest divisions in the league. The Vikings play two games each against the Bears, Lions, and Packers. They host the Falcons, Bengals, Eagles, Ravens, and Commanders. They visit the Steelers, Browns, Chargers, Seahawks (and Darnold), Cowboys, and Giants.

Vikings Over/Under For Wins

If the oddsmakers are right, the Vikings will decline significantly from their 14 wins in 2024, even if they go over their 2025 projection.

The big question is McCarthy. Will he perform? And will he stay healthy? It’s a roll of the dice to go from the known in Darnold to the first-year starter McCarthy. Still, O’Connell knows quarterbacks, and this is the tack he’s taking.

There are too many question marks in a very difficult division. They will drop below 8.5 wins.