NFL 2025: Las Vegas Raiders Over/Under For Wins

• For the 2025 NFL season, oddsmakers have the Las Vegas Raiders over-under wins at 7.5
• In 2024, they were 4-13 under head coach Antonio Pierce, finishing last in the tough AFC West
• The organization made major changes in the offseason, hiring Pete Carroll as head coach, Chip Kelly as offensive coordinator, and trading for Geno Smith to take over at quarterback
• The Raiders took All-American running back Ashton Jeanty in the first round of the 2025 draft

The New Braintrust Has a Winning Pedigree

The Raiders’ hiring of Pete Carroll as head coach and then reuniting him with his former Seahawks quarterback, Geno Smith, signifies that owner Mark Davis and new part-owner Tom Brady are not interested in a long-term rebuild.

Carroll will be 74 shortly after the start of the regular season. Smith will be 35 a month later. They’re looking to make a significant improvement fast. There’s no doubt that the decision-makers understand winning. The question is whether they can make the rapid improvements necessary to compete in a division with the Chiefs, Chargers, and Broncos.

Winning Immediately Will Be Difficult

With Carroll and Smith in the fold and Chip Kelly as the offensive coordinator, their intentions are obvious. Kelly’s fast break offense is ideal for Smith’s mobility and strong arm. First-round pick Ashton Jeanty is a big-time playmaker at running back.

Tight end Brock Bowers is already a star after a transcendent rookie season with 112 catches and an All-Pro nod.

Carroll will build a hard-hitting, big-play defense, specializing in a terrifying secondary.

They’re lacking star power at wide receiver, but still have veteran Jakobi Meyers and signed Phillip Dorsett II. Jack Bech was selected in the second round of the draft out of TCU.

On defense, another former Seahawks player under Carroll, Jamal Adams, signed with Las Vegas. They boosted the linebacker corps with Elandon Roberts, Devin White, and Germaine Pratt. Cornerback Darien Porter was drafted in the third round out of Iowa State. Veteran defensive back Eric Stokes was signed away from the Packers.

Star defensive end Maxx Crosby will be rejuvenated under Carroll.

Is Brady in This for the Long Term?

Tom Brady is clearly looking for his next challenge.

The problem for him is the same problem experienced every great champion who has reached the status of being categorized as the best ever. Once it’s over, where do they go? What do they do?

Initially, it looked as if Brady had found his niche in business with TB12. It could have been an exercise, health, and lifestyle brand had he chosen to devote himself to it. But it was sold and he moved on from it.

Now he has his broadcasting, his acting gigs, endorsements, raising his kids. But nothing can replace that rush from being in the spotlight and on the playing field.

Will playing a role in running the Raiders give him that rush? Or will it be the next short-term endeavor where he either sells his stake at a profit or just recedes to the background to try and find something else to do?

And since his influence is clearly being felt in how the team is being currently, what would it mean if he backed away?

Apart From Their Divisional Games, the Schedule Is Workable

The six divisional games against the Chiefs, Chargers, and Broncos will be tough. However, the rest of the schedule has some winnable games.

They travel to play the Patriots, Commanders, Colts, Eagles, and Texans. At home, they host the Bears, Titans, Jaguars, Cowboys, Browns, and Giants.

Raiders Over/Under For Wins

Historically, Carroll has squeezed every single ounce out of his teams. Managing to finish above .500 in his last two seasons with the Seahawks as they transitioned from the Russell Wilson era was an underappreciated accomplishment. Despite his age, he’s got energy and enthusiasm to do this job.

The difficulty of the AFC West aside, could the Raiders compete with and beat the Titans, Jags, Bears, Giants, Patriots and a few other teams on their schedule? Of course.

The question is whether they will get beyond 7.5 wins.

Oddsmakers strongly doubt it and they’re going to be correct.