NFL 2025: Kansas City Chiefs Over/Under For Wins

• Our next NFL 2025 preview analyzes the Kansas City Chiefs’ over/under for wins
• KC is trying to rebound from its blowout loss to the Eagles in Super Bowl LIX
• Their schedule is of moderate difficulty
• They lost several key veterans, but have put in place replacements with potential
• Patrick Mahomes is still in his prime, and Travis Kelce returns for another season

Name Stars Return, but One Understated Area Is Markedly Different

Of course, Patrick Mahomes will be under center, Travis Kelce will line up at tight end, Chris Jones will be at defensive tackle, Trent McDuffie will anchor the secondary, and Isiah Pacheco will be back to 100% as the primary running back.

However, great teams — Super Bowl-winning teams — build from the interior out. An understated aspect of the Chiefs’ success for much of their run was their offensive line. It struggled for extended periods in 2024, but came together at crunch time, helping KC to another Super Bowl appearance.

That offensive line will be vastly different in 2025 with veteran All-Pro Joe Thuney departing for the Bears and D.J. Humphries not re-signed. They signed Jaylon Moore away from the 49ers and drafted the giant 6’6″, 330-pound Josh Simmons in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft.

If they don’t protect Mahomes, particularly against the Ravens, the Chiefs will not win.

Wide receiver depth was compromised as DeAndre Hopkins signed with the Ravens and Mecole Hardman went to the Packers. Still, they bring back Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, and Rashee Rice. Elijhah Badger was signed as an undrafted free agent out of Florida.

Kelce returns, and Noah Gray is an emerging force at tight end.

The Schedule? Harder Than Some, Easier Than Others

The Chiefs play 10 games against 2024 playoff teams. In their division, the tough AFC West, they have the requisite two games each against the Chargers and Broncos, both of whom are better on paper than they were last season. They also play the Bills, Ravens, Commanders, Lions, and a Super Bowl rematch with the Eagles nine days after traveling to Brazil in the opening game against the Chargers.

They also play teams that are bound to be better than they were in 2024, with two against the Raiders and one each against the Cowboys and Jaguars.

The Chiefs took some time to gain traction in 2024. Though they went 15-2, much of that was due to Mahomes’ derring-do and late-game drives. When they smelled the playoffs, they turned it on. Teams cannot do that forever.

The Clock Is Ticking on This Template

From now on, as every season winds down, the questions will start as to how long Kelce and Jones will keep playing. Head coach Andy Reid is 67 and has been in the coaching grind for 42 going on 43 years. While age is only a number, there is also the “handwriting on the wall” factor where a coach with Reid’s pedigree might see what happened to Bill Belichick and pull the ripcord before the dynasty comes undone completely. And it generally happens fast.

There is also benefit to thinking that this is the last run as veteran players and coaches will pull out all the stops to go out on top. It’s difficult to envision Kelce playing much longer when he’ll turn 36 not long after the season starts, and his outside interests, notably his relationship with Taylor Swift, garnering increased attention. He has a long career in broadcasting, film, and entertainment ahead of him.

Chiefs Over/Under for Wins

The Chiefs retain their title until someone from the AFC knocks them off their pedestal. Age, attrition, and apathy are all factors to look at when deciding if they will reach their fourth straight Super Bowl and sixth in seven years.

But this isn’t about the Super Bowl. It’s about their win total.

There is a viable argument to expect a drop from 15 wins to fewer than 11.5. But this team gets the benefit of the doubt that others do not. That means the over is a wise choice.