NFL 2025: Indianapolis Colts Over/Under For Wins

• For the 2025 NFL season, oddsmakers set the Indianapolis Colts’ over-under wins at 7.5
• Indy went 8-9 in 2024 despite quarterback Anthony Richardson’s up-and-down play
• The team benefited from a very weak division to stay in playoff contention
• Veteran quarterback Daniel Jones signed a one-year deal to compete with Richardson
• Longtime owner Jim Irsay died during the offseason; his three daughters will run the team

Who’s the Quarterback?

Anthony Richardson has a rocket arm and terrifying speed. However, his accuracy is nonexistent, and head coach Shane Steichen and offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter needed to dramatically simplify the offense to account for his inability to hit his shots.

The Colts had benched Richardson after back-to-back woeful performances against the Dolphins and Texans in late October 2024. In those games, he was a combined 20 for 56 for 304 yards with 1 touchdown and 1 interception. Joe Flacco took over, but the team didn’t fare much better under him, so they went back to Richardson not on merit, but based on “what’s the difference?”

Needless to say, this is not what they expected when they selected him fourth overall in the 2023 NFL Draft.

Still, the talent is there with arm strength, size, and speed.

For insurance and legitimate competition, the Colts signed former Giants first-round pick Daniel Jones.

Jones was run out of New York for issues that were not entirely his fault. He had three head coaches and five offensive coordinators along with a slew of injuries, most notably to his neck and his knee. He does have talent and experience.

The Colts Focused On Improving Their Secondary

In addition to getting a backup quarterback who can immediately start if needed, Colts GM Chris Ballard acknowledged that their secondary was a weak point and took steps to shore it up.

Former Chiefs and 49ers cornerback Charvarius Ward signed a three-year, $60 million deal. Ward had his career year in 2023 for San Francisco intercepting 5 passes and leading the league in passes defended.

They signed safety Camryn Bynum away from the Vikings and drafted cornerback Justin Walley in the third round and safety Hunter Wohler in the seventh round from Minnesota and Wisconsin, respectively.

The Colts Have a Strong Offense…

…contingent on quarterback play.

Running back Jonathan Taylor is a star, arguably the best back in the NFL. At wide receiver, they have Josh Downs, Michael Pittman Jr., and Alec Pierce. Tight end Tyler Warren was drafted in the 2025 first round from Penn State. He caught 104 balls in 2024 and was seventh in the Heisman Trophy voting.

Any Ownership Change Signals a New Era

Few if any sports organizations function like the Steelers where the Rooney family has had a seamless transition from the family patriarch serving as the organization’s overseer to their progeny, maintaining their principles, sticking to their strategy, and reaping the rewards of competence and consistency.

Late owner Jim Irsay had his faults, many of which were played out publicly. But he loved the Colts and the team had undeniable success with Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck at quarterback.

After Irsay’s passing, his three daughters will share ownership handling different areas of the organization.

Regardless of their father’s intentions, the Irsay daughters need to work together to run an entity that is worth arguably around $5 billion. Three owners mean three opinions, philosophies, desires, goals.

Undoubtedly, both Ballard and Steichen are aware of this and understand the importance of on-field success. That suggests that Richardson’s leash will be short and if they think they have a better chance of winning with Jones under center, then Jones will be under center.

The AFC South and Its Shakiness Could Keep the Colts Competitive

Quarterback issues aside, the AFC South’s mediocrity kept the 2024 Colts in the playoff race until late in the season. While the Jaguars and Titans should be better, the division remains mediocre.

They play two games each against the Texans, Jaguars, and Titans. In addition, at home, they play the Dolphins, Broncos, Raiders, Cardinals, Falcons, and 49ers. On the road, they take on the Rams, Chargers, Steelers, Chiefs, and Seahawks.

Colts Over/Under For Wins

The Colts do not have the luxury of waiting for Richardson to become what his tools suggested he could be when they drafted him. Unless he shows that he can be accurate and efficient, he is not trustworthy as the starter. For all of Jones’ flaws, at the very least, they will know what they’re getting. His time with the Vikings on the practice squad and working with Minnesota head coach Kevin O’Connell will help him after the abuse and inconsistency he endured with the Giants.

The Colts still have talent on both sides of the ball and are playoff contenders if they get decent quarterback play.

Expect Jones to start and for the Colts to go beyond 7.5 wins.