NFL 2025: Houston Texans Over/Under For Wins

• The Houston Texans’ over-under wins are at 9.5, according to the oddsmakers
• For our NFL 2025 preseason assessment, we gauge the Texans and if they can build on 2024’s 10-7 finish
• They battered the Chargers in the Wild Card before losing to the Chiefs in the AFC Divisional Round
• The AFC South is arguably the league’s weakest division

Protecting and Adding Weapons for C.J. Stroud Was the Offseason Focus

C.J. Stroud is the key to the Texans taking the next step and joining the Chiefs, Ravens, and Bills as legitimate Super Bowl contenders. Houston was fourth in the league in sacks allowed with 52. They took steps to address that problem.

Laremy Tunsil, 5X Pro Bowl tackle, was traded to the Commanders. To replace him, they made several moves, including signing tackles Cam Robinson and Trent Brown, and selecting Aireontae Ersery from the University of Minnesota in the second round of the 2025 NFL Draft.

All three are at least 6’6″ and well over 320 pounds. They join Juice Scruggs, Eli Cox, Jake Andrews, and others in an attempt to form a protective unit for the young QB.

They also addressed the wide receiving corps. Tank Dell will miss a chunk of the season after a torn ACL last year. Stefon Diggs left via free agency, signing with the Patriots. Houston acquired Christian Kirk from the Jaguars. The seven-year veteran averaged 74 catches a year for Jacksonville.

With Nico Collins, rookie Jayden Higgins, tight end Dalton Schultz, and Joe Mixon in the backfield, Stroud should be shielded and have enough weapons for a big offensive season.

The Texans also fired formerly hot head coaching candidate and offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, replacing him with Nick Caley. Caley spent the last two seasons as an offensive assistant under Sean McVay with the Rams. Before that, he spent eight years with the Patriots and won two rings, primarily as a tight ends coach.

Houston is Known for Its Hard-Hitting Defense

Sometimes too hard-hitting.

Head coach DeMeco Ryans played 10 years in the league as a tough middle linebacker, so it’s no surprise that his defense plays aggressively, particularly Azeez Al-Shaair. Al-Shaair drew a three-game suspension after a late hit on Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence, knocking him out and ending his season.

Houston had several such incidents involving questionable hits. One of the worst was defensive back Calen Bullock knocking out Dolphins receiver Grant Dubose and sending him to the hospital.

Where does hard-hitting cross the line into dirty play? Whether it’s intentional or not, the Texans are known around the league for this type of behavior, and it can negatively impact them on the field with the officials watching them more closely and doling out penalties when perhaps there would not have been one called on another team. It also places a target on Stroud’s back.

To improve the defense, they acquired safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson from the Eagles and signed tackle Cam Robinson.

The Texans Face a Difficult Schedule

Houston plays their divisional foes, the Colts, Jaguars, and Titans, six times. None of the three is considered a playoff contender. They travel to play the Rams, Ravens, Seahawks, Chiefs, and Chargers. At home, they host the Buccaneers, 49ers, Broncos, Bills, Cardinals, and Raiders.

Before ticking off the games as “should win” or “might have a problem,” they had a few of those games in 2024, and they did not go as expected. They beat the Bills and Chargers but lost to the Jets, Colts, and Titans. Houston put a scare into the Lions and intercepted Jared Goff five times, but blew a 23-7 halftime lead, losing 26-23.

Texans Over/Under For Wins

The Texans’ schedule is difficult, and while they will be competitive, they are not of the caliber of the top teams in the conference. Neither the Titans nor the Jaguars will be as bad in 2025 as they were in 2024. The Colts might be worse. Houston won 10 games in 2024 and will fall below that in 2025, though 9 wins might still be enough to win the still-weak AFC South.