NFL 2025: Detroit Lions Over/Under For Wins

• In our latest NFL 2025 projection, we answer the question of where the Detroit Lions over/under for wins will land
• The Lions tied the Chiefs for the best record in the league in the 2024 regular season, but were upset by the Commanders in the NFC Divisional Round
• In the offseason, Detroit lost both offensive coordinator Ben Johnson and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn to the Bears and Jets, respectively
• Oddsmakers have the Lions over/under at 10.5 wins and are bearish on the over

Is the Lions’ Window Closing?

Or is it already closed?

There are, of course, legitimate reasons for the Lions’ loss to the Commanders in the NFC Divisional Round last season. It could be viewed from a different perspective, as they went 15-2 despite a series of devastating injuries that left them shorthanded, especially on defense, and forced them to compete with backups and fill-ins.

But the 45-30 playoff loss at home is lingering.

Still, the Lions’ defense will be rejuvenated by the return of defensive end Aidan Hutchinson and several notable free agent additions, including cornerback D.J. Reed and defensive tackle Roy Lopez.

Cornerback Carlton Davis departed for the Patriots.

Simple good health will be a significant help to the Lions in 2025. At various times, they were without Hutchinson, Alim McNeill, Davis, Marcus Davenport, and Alex Anzalone. On offense, David Montgomery sprained his MCL in December. He was expected to be lost for the season, but returned for the Washington playoff game. He was a non-factor in that loss.

Had the Lions made it to the Super Bowl, there was initial, though unlikely, hope that Hutchinson might be able to return from his broken tibia and fibula. We’ll never know.

In the first round of the 2025 draft, they selected defensive tackle Tyleik Williams from Ohio State to further boost their defense, particularly against the run.

Is It Campbell or Was It the Coordinators?

A challenging consequence of success is that other teams will raid the organization for coaches and front office staff. Head coach Dan Campbell is still in place. But offensive coordinator Ben Johnson left to take over as the Bears’ head coach, and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn went to the Jets. Now, the Lions must contend with Johnson’s innovations with an NFC North rival.

John Morton replaces Johnson as OC. Morton was an NFL coordinator for one year with the Jets in 2017. He was the Lions’ senior offensive assistant in 2022 and spent the past two seasons as the Broncos’ passing game coordinator under Sean Payton. Since he was with the Lions before, he knows the organization, Campbell, and quarterback Jared Goff.

Kelvin Sheppard replaced Glenn as DC. Sheppard had an eight-year career in the league as a linebacker for five teams, his last being with Detroit in 2018. He’s coached the Lions’ linebackers for the past three seasons.

Johnson’s primary skills were his fearlessness in doing the unexpected and putting Goff in a position to succeed by maximizing his strengths, his accuracy, and his willingness to stay in the pocket under fire. Can Morton replicate that? Will he feel the need to put his stamp on the offense?

Glenn’s defense played all out, all the time, just as the former defensive back did when he played for Bill Parcells. He was no-nonsense, aggressive, and forged bonds with his players. Sheppard should seamlessly slide into Glenn’s shoes, helped by the defensive additions and the return of injured players.

Their Schedule Is Hard

Campbell played for and coached under Parcells. He also worked for Sean Payton. These football men have a mentality of playing the game for 60 minutes. That doesn’t mean they’re running up the score to shove the other team’s face in their loss, but their teams are playing football the way the coaches were taught to play football.

But payback is real. The Lions have inflicted some brutal beatings on teams over the past few years, and there might be some comeuppance on the horizon.

They play in the NFC North, one of the NFL’s toughest divisions. That means two games each against the Packers, Vikings, and Bears. They also play the Ravens, Bengals, Chiefs, Buccaneers, Commanders, Eagles, Cowboys, Rams, and Steelers. The two “gimme” games (on paper at least) are when they host the Browns and Giants.

Lions Over/Under For Wins

If the oddsmakers are right about the Lions, there will be a big dropoff from 15 wins to 10 or fewer. There is a logical argument for that to happen. Combining the loss of their coordinators, the number of teams gunning for them, their division being as tough as it is, and that hellish schedule, there will be a step back.

Will it be so far back that they will win at least five fewer games than they did in 2024?

Yes. It will.