NFL 2025: Denver Broncos Over/Under For Wins

• Oddsmakers have the Denver Broncos’ over-under wins at 9.5, but heavily lean toward the under
• The Broncos went 10-7 in 2024, secured a Wild Card, and were blown out by the Bills in the playoffs
• Head coach Sean Payton is in his third year in Denver and may now have his quarterback in Bo Nix
• Denver’s offseason was focused on boosting the secondary and giving Nix offensive upgrades

The Broncos’ 2024 Season Was a Means to an End Offensively

Sean Payton’s second season as Broncos head coach went much smoother than his first. The team was working with a rookie quarterback in Bo Nix, but Payton was able to put his stamp on the team after a turbulent first season, during which he struggled to get on the same page with veteran QB Russell Wilson.

Denver went 10-7 in the regular season and made the playoffs as a Wild Card. They traveled to Buffalo, where the Bills blew them out 31-7. Denver actually led 7-0 before the Bills dropped the hammer on them.

Still, despite a disappointing ending to the season and having an easy schedule, they took several steps in the right direction. Nix got valuable experience and showed that he can efficiently run Payton’s offense. They have solid pieces in place with Courtland Sutton and Jaleel McLaughlin, Marvin Mims, and Devaughn Vele.

For 2025, they added running back J.K. Dobbins from the Chargers, tight end Evan Engram from the Jaguars, and selected running back R.J. Harvey in the second round of the NFL Draft out of UCF. Harvey averaged 6.8 yards per carry and scored 22 TDs in 2024.

An Already Strong Defense Was Made Stronger

In 2024, the Broncos ranked seventh in overall defense, third in passing yards, and led the league in sacks with 63. In the offseason, they added veteran linebacker Dre Greenlaw from the 49ers. Greenlaw suffered a quadriceps injury in the spring, and there are conflicting reports about its severity and whether he might be ready to start the season.

They also signed safety Talanoa Hufanga from the 49ers. He was an All-Pro in 2022, but he tore an ACL in 2023 and suffered torn ligaments in his wrist in 2024.

In the draft, they took All-American cornerback Jahdae Barron in the first round from Texas. He intercepted five passes in 2024.

The improvements to the secondary are key as they are in a high-flying AFC West with the Chiefs‘ Patrick Mahomes, the Chargers’ Justin Herbert, and the Raiders’ Geno Smith slinging the ball deep.

Super Bowl Contention is Probably a Year Away

In private, even Payton would likely acknowledge that he needs more time to get the Broncos where he needs them to be to truly compete for a Super Bowl. They are not yet in the upper echelon of the AFC with the Chiefs, Bills, or Ravens. But they’re getting there.

Their 2024 schedule helped them greatly in making it to the postseason. Eight of their 10 wins came against teams that did not make the playoffs. A ninth came against the Chiefs in the last game of the season when KC treated the game like a preseason tilt and played none of their stars.

For 2025, they play six games against the aforementioned Chiefs, Chargers, and Raiders. The first two are playoff teams, and the Raiders should be much improved under Pete Carroll.

The Broncos host the Titans, Bengals, Giants, Cowboys, Packers, and Jaguars. They travel to play the Colts, Eagles, Jets, Texans, and Commanders.

Broncos Over/Under For Wins

Denver again has a relatively advantageous schedule. But when calculating whether they will at least match their 10-win output from 2024, it is important to gauge if Nix will struggle in his second season, if Greenlaw and Hufanga will be at full strength after injury-plagued seasons, and if the weaker teams on the schedule will be better in 2025.

The difference could be Payton and his skill at maximizing his teams in the regular season. Based on that, they will defy the oddsmakers and, at a minimum, win 10 games again.