NFL 2025: Buffalo Bills Over/Under For Wins

• Our latest NFL prediction assesses the 2025 Buffalo Bills’ over/under for wins
• What are Josh Allen and Buffalo’s prospects to retain their grip on the AFC East, and can they win more than 11.5 games?
• The Chiefs have ended the Bills’ season in the playoffs in 4 of the last 5 seasons
• Buffalo added veteran defensive end Joey Bosa as a free agent

Does Buffalo Still Have a Nearly Guaranteed Division Title?

One of the benefits the Patriots had during their Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era is that, in many years, their competition in the AFC East was weak enough that they could all but guarantee a division title. Buffalo has reached a similar level of divisional dominance, having won it in five straight seasons.

On paper, the only threat is the Dolphins. The Jets are embarking on another reboot, and the Patriots are still rebuilding, now with new head coach Mike Vrabel. The weakness of their division plays a large role in oddsmakers being bullish on them winning at least 12 games.

Josh Allen Is the Reigning MVP, but Needs To Reach the Super Bowl

Quarterback Josh Allen won the MVP in a close vote over runner-up Lamar Jackson.

Jackson probably should have won it again, but there seemed to be a “someone else” movement with the Ravens QB having won the award twice.

Statistically, Allen was certainly a deserving winner. He threw for 3,731 yards and 28 TDs against only 6 picks. He led the league with a 77.3 total QB rating. On the ground, he rushed for 531 yards and 12 TDs.

The 2024-25 AFC Championship Game loss to the Chiefs was a familiar story with Allen and the Bills coming up painfully short despite a brilliant performance. In the 32-29 last-second loss, Allen was 22 for 34, accrued 237 yards passing, tossing 2 TD passes. He rushed 11 times for 39 yards.

Unfortunately for Allen, there’s no “someone else” option for the Super Bowl, and it’s Patrick Mahomes’ domain until someone takes it from him. Unless the Bills beat the Chiefs or someone beats the Chiefs for them, they will not get to the Roman Numeral Game.

Still, Allen is a megastar who puts up the numbers every single year. The losses to KC were not on him despite that perception. But that’s what goes with being the marquee player. Individual accomplishments are fine, but he needs that Super Bowl.

Suffice it to say that Allen is not the problem.

Can Joey Bosa Stay Healthy?

The Bills moved on from one veteran pass rusher by cutting Von Miller and signed another veteran pass rusher who is six years younger, Joey Bosa.

As good as Bosa is, he was limited to a total of 14 games in 2022-23 with an inguinal groin tear and a pedal foot sprain. He’s also had at least two recorded concussions. Will he be rejuvenated in a new locale, one that probably has a better chance at a Super Bowl than his previous home with the Chargers? Perhaps.

The Offense Has Been Tweaked, but Is Largely the Same

Wide receivers Amari Cooper and Mack Hollins are gone. The Bills signed Elijah Moore away from the Browns. Moore caught 61 passes for 538 yards in 2024. They also signed Josh Palmer away from the Chargers. Palmer caught 39 passes for 584 yards last season. Top receiver Khalil Shakir signed a four-year contract extension.

They Have an Advantageous Schedule

The Bills play their opener on Sunday night, hosting the Ravens. They have two games each against the Jets, Patriots, and Dolphins, none of which made the playoffs in 2024. Only Miami is a potential contender in 2025. They play the NFC South, which means they get the Saints, Panthers, Falcons, and Buccaneers. Only the Bucs made the playoffs in 2024. The Bills also visit the Browns. They host the Super Bowl LIX participants with the Chiefs visiting Buffalo in Week 9 and the Eagles visiting in Week 17.

Bills Over/Under for Wins

With the Bills undoubtedly aware that it’s reaching put up or shut up time for this roster while Allen is in his prime, there will be a sense of urgency to get it done once and for all. The Chiefs showed vulnerabilities in 2024. Buffalo needs to exploit them and take that next step.

Their schedule is weak. Even accounting for an upset or two, they will surpass 11.5 wins.