NFL 2025: Baltimore Ravens Over/Under For Wins

• Our look at the Baltimore Ravens’ over/under wins projection assesses whether they will win more than 11.5 games for the third straight season
• Baltimore brings back its nucleus, led by quarterback Lamar Jackson, along with a few notable signings and one controversial departure
• With Jackson in his prime, they’re approaching “need to reach a Super Bowl already” status

The Same Teams Keep Pushing the Ravens Down the Mountain

The Bill Belichick/Tom Brady Patriots were the Ravens’ biggest obstacle to AFC dominance and probably another Super Bowl win or two. Since the Pats’ dynasty finally fell apart with Brady leaving and Belichick unable to effectively rebuild, the Ravens’ window has been slammed shut by the other two dominant teams in the conference, the Chiefs and Bills.

Since 2020, the Ravens have been eliminated by Buffalo twice and Kansas City once.

Their 2024-25 Divisional Round loss to the Bills was especially painful. Down 27-25 with 1:33 left in regulation, tight end Mark Andrews dropped what would have been a game-tying 2-point conversion, allowing Buffalo to seal the victory and head for the AFC Championship Game where they lost to the Chiefs.

Baltimore is 25-9 in the regular season over the past two seasons and has nothing to show for it.

The Ravens’ Rebuilt Secondary is Designed to Blunt Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes

And maybe Aaron Rodgers, now of the Steelers.

Cornerback Brandon Stephens left to sign with the Jets. The Ravens signed Chidobe Awuzie, late of the Titans, and Jaire Alexander, formerly of the Packers, to help in the secondary. They also selected defensive back Malaki Starks in the first round of the 2025 NFL draft out of Georgia.

The Offense Is Intact With Some New Faces

Veteran wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins was signed away from the Chiefs. Cooper Rush left the Cowboys and signed a two-year deal to serve as Jackson’s backup.

Star running back Derrick Henry, who had a resurgent season running for 1,921 yards and scoring 16 touchdowns, signed a two-year contract extension.

Fullback Patrick Ricard and offensive tackle Ronnie Stanley were re-signed.

The offense will be fundamentally the same with Jackson, Henry, Andrews, Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, and Isaiah Likely all returning.

Justin Tucker is Gone For…Reasons

When the allegations of star kicker Justin Tucker behaving improperly during massage therapy sessions at various spas around Baltimore first came to light, it was unclear as to what the Ravens were going to do about it. Before this, Tucker had an impeccable reputation around town and throughout the league. He was known for his devotion to his Catholic faith, charity work, and talents as an opera singer. Given those factors and that he denied any wrongdoing, he deserved the benefit of the doubt.

On the field, he’s a 7X Pro Bowler and a 5X All-Pro, a future Hall of Famer.

As the investigation proceeded, however, the club’s intentions were obvious when they selected Arizona kicker Tyler Loop in the seventh round of the draft. They have also brought former Wyoming kicker John Hoyland in as competition. Teams do not waste draft picks on kickers unless they think they will make the team. They subsequently released Tucker.

Tucker had a bad year in 2024. It was not a bad year based on his previous greatness. It was a bad year for any placekicker with a 73.3 field goal percentage. That is by far the worst season of his career. At 35, without the allegations, and with his hefty contract, they might have cut him anyway. Though there was the argument that it was one blip in a stellar career, the allegations gave the team the freedom to push him over the cliff.

The Schedule Is of Moderate Difficulty

The Ravens open in Buffalo. In the hardscrabble AFC North, they play two games each against the new-look Steelers, the Bengals and the Browns. At home, they play the Lions, Texans, Rams, Bears, Jets, and Patriots. They travel to take on the Chiefs, Dolphins, Vikings, and Packers.

It’s not easy, but there are a few “should win” games in there.

Ravens Over/Under For Wins

The Ravens’ success of failure is not measured by what they do in the regular season, but in the playoffs. And by that metric, they have failed for the past 12 seasons since their lone Super Bowl win under head coach John Harbaugh. They are getting older and it’s time for them to emerge from the AFC. The Chiefs are vulnerable and the Bills are in essentially the same boat as the Ravens.

With their schedule and roster, they should easily surpass 11.5 wins. What they will do in the playoffs is the bigger question.