NFL 2025: Atlanta Falcons Over/Under For Wins

• Our next NFL 2025 preseason analysis looks at the Atlanta Falcons’ over-under wins projection
• Oddsmakers are predicting similar mediocrity from 2024, with the O/U at 7.5 wins
• Despite handing the quarterback reins to Michael Penix Jr. late last season, Kirk Cousins is still on the roster
• Atlanta focused on improving its defense during the offseason

Who Starts at Quarterback, Penix Jr. Or Cousins?

The current narrative is that the Falcons will start Michael Penix Jr. at quarterback, and veteran Kirk Cousins will be his backup.

Cousins is trying to be a good teammate and, given his personality, will not take his frustrations out on Penix, meaning he will be as helpful as possible. Still, those frustrations exist, and he made clear his belief that the Falcons were not upfront with him about their plans with Penix.

Just because Penix opens camp as QB1 does not mean it will stay that way. First, he was injury-prone in college. Second, he played passably well in 2024 when considering all the factors he faced. He was a rookie, dealing with a QB controversy in replacing a respected veteran, and the Falcons were fighting for a playoff spot.

He completed 61 of 105 passes, threw 3 TDs, and 3 picks. The team went 1-2 in his starts, losing the last two to the Commanders and Panthers in overtime, ruining their playoff hopes.

As he returned from a torn Achilles, Cousins struggled with his mobility, his balls lacked the familiar zip, and he led the league in interceptions with 16. But he should be fully recovered from the surgery now, or as fully recovered as a 37-year-old can be, and he’s a looming presence if Penix struggles.

If the Falcons were ready to commit 100 percent to Penix without a veteran behind him, they could have been more aggressive in finding a taker for Cousins.

They weren’t.

Atlanta Made Defense a Priority in the Offseason

The Falcons were in the bottom third in the league in defense in 2024. The bulk of head coach Raheem Morris’ career has been spent overseeing defense. To contend in 2025, they need Penix to perform, but they also need the defense to do a better job of keeping points off the scoreboard.

Defensive end/linebacker Leondard Floyd was signed away from the 49ers on a one-year deal. Defensive tackle Morgan Fox came over from the Chargers on a two-year contract. Cornerback Mike Ford was brought in from the Browns for two years and $4 million. Linebacker Divine Deablo was signed away from the Raiders for two years and $14 million. They also signed safety Jordan Fuller (Panthers) and cornerback Keith Taylor (Chiefs).

Their entire 2025 draft centered on defense. With two first-rounders, they took defensive ends Jalon Walker out of Georgia and James Pearce out of Tennessee.

They Have Plenty of Weapons on Offense

Regardless of who is at quarterback, there is a wealth of options to move the ball. Feature back Bijan Robinson ran for 1,456 yards on 304 carries and caught 61 passes for 431 yards. Tyler Allgeier rushed for 644 yards on 137 carries and caught all 13 balls thrown to him.

The receiver corps is deep with Drake London, Darnell Mooney, and Ray-Ray McCloud III catching the ball. Kyle Pitts returns as the primary tight end.

The NFC South Is Not the League’s Toughest Division

In the NFC South, the Falcons will play the Buccaneers, Panthers, and Saints twice each. They travel to play the Vikings, 49ers, Patriots, Colts, Jets, and Cardinals. At home, they play the Commanders, Bills, Dolphins, Seahawks, and Rams.

Falcons Over/Under For Wins

Even with the remade defense and the deep offense, the key to the Falcons’ season is the quarterback. Will Penix handle the job from the start? Will he stay healthy? What happens if they need to turn to Cousins? Cousins is being a professional about the demotion, but he’s understandably unhappy.

Their schedule does not look difficult on paper, but the Panthers are going to be better, as are the Patriots and Dolphins. The 49ers will be healthier, making them a tougher opponent.

Oddsmakers lean heavily toward the Falcons going over 7.5 wins, but they’re going to struggle and fall below that with myriad questions moving forward.