NCAAF 2025: How Did Opening Week Change the Heisman Trophy Odds?

• NCAAF 2025 is in the books, and the Heisman Trophy Week 1 odds have been updated
• Oklahoma’s John Mateer has jumped to the front of the line
• Preseason favorite Arch Manning’s odds dropped substantially
• There’s plenty of season left, but also value in taking advantage of players whose odds to win the Heisman have gotten worse

Arch Trends Down

In our post discussing Archie Manning’s belief that his grandson, Arch Manning, would shun the 2026 NFL Draft in favor of staying at the University of Texas for his senior year, just as his sons Peyton did at Tennessee and Eli did at Ole Miss, we examined the 2025 Heisman Trophy odds.

At the time, Arch led the pack at +650. After Texas’s opening game loss to Ohio State and his struggles, he’s now +1200.

Arch’s performance was not so bad that his entire allure should be called into question. He was 17 for 30 with 1 TD and 1 interception. Some of Steve Sarkisian’s calls were questionable at best, such as the fourth-down attempts instead of kicking gimme field goals and the tush push, where Arch could have easily gotten injured.

Still, the odds going from +600 to +1200 present an opportunity since he has the entire season ahead of him. It was one mediocre game.

John Mateer’s Profile Rises

Mateer has not exactly burst onto the scene despite not having been a commonly mentioned name in the Heisman Trophy race before the season. He threw 29 TD passes against 7 picks for Washington State in 2024.

After the 2024 season, Mateer transferred to Oklahoma, and in the Sooners’ opening game 35-3 win over Illinois State, he completed 30 of 37 passes for 392 yards, 3 TDs, and 1 pick. He rushed 7 times for 24 yards and a TD.

Do the oddsmakers really believe that Mateer is now the Heisman Trophy favorite? Or did he jump to the top based on one excellent performance and because his competitors struggled?

They play Michigan next, so that should give a clearer view of what to expect from Mateer this season.

The Other Prospects Held Serve

As for the other top preseason Heisman Trophy contenders, they generally maintained their position, with most seeing their odds dropping slightly.

Garrett Nussmeier

Nussmeier’s previous odds were +1000. Now, he’s the second likeliest winner at +800.

He went 28 for 38 with a TD pass in LSU’s 17-10 win over Clemson.

LaNorris Sellers

In South Carolina’s 24-11 win over Virginia Tech, Sellers completed 12 of 19 passes for 1 TD. He rushed 13 times for 25 yards. His 64-yard TD pass with 7:42 remaining in the game sealed the deal for the Gamecocks.

He was +900 before the season and is now +850.

Carson Beck

Newly transferred to Miami, Beck began the season at +1000. He is now at +950.

In the Hurricanes’ gripping win over Notre Dame, Beck was 20 for 31 with 2 TD passes and no interceptions. He led their drive in the waning minutes to set up a winning field goal.

Cade Klubnik

Klubnik was +900 before the season. He’s now +1400.

He was 19 for 38 with no TDs and 1 pick. in Clemson’s loss to LSU and Nussmeier. Again, the drop is similar to Arch’s. He was not great against LSU, but it was the first game of the season against a tough opponent.

Jeremiah Smith

Smith was +1100 and is now +1400.

He caught 6 balls for 43 yards. It was as lowkey unimpressive a performance as Arch’s. At a certain point, it might be better to just chalk this game up as a defensive struggle between two championship contenders. It’s safe to say that Smith will put up big numbers this season.

Heisman Trophy Week 1 Odds Updated

The Heisman Trophy Week 1 odds are updated after Week 1, and you can expect that to continue throughout the season. With that and Arch Manning’s odds dropping so precipitously, it makes sense to stick with him as the pick.