MLB Playoffs: Yankees vs Blue Jays ALDS Pick — AL East Rivals With Identical Records Meet

• For the Yankees-Blue Jays MLB ALDS, New York meets Toronto, its AL East rival that barely beat them out for the division title
• New York squeaked by the Red Sox in the Wild Card series, winning 2 straight after losing the opener, with Cam Schlitter brilliant in Game 3
• Toronto won the AL East despite both teams going 94-68, based on winning 8 of 13 head-to-head in the regular season

The Yankees Battled Past Boston To Set Up a Meeting With the Jays

Yankees fans were panicking after the Game 1 loss to Garrett Crochet and the BoSox and calling for Aaron Boone’s head. That has quieted — for the moment — with the Wild Card series win. Neither Boone nor Alex Cora exactly put on a strategic clinic.

Boston largely mitigated Aaron Judge, holding him to 4 hits in 11 at-bats, none for extra bases. Austin Wells, Ben Rice, Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Volpe, and Jazz Chisholm did the damage at the plate and in the field.

Max Fried, Carlos Rodon, and Cam Schlitter were excellent as starters. Schlitter did an above-and-beyond-the-call job, throwing 8 shutout innings in the deciding game. David Bednar was excellent in relief.

The same challenges that have afflicted the Yankees during Boone’s tenure keep cropping up in the postseason: his adherence to front office edicts on how to run the team in-game. It’s fine during the regular season, but in the playoffs, it doesn’t work, and it costs them games.

Deciding to remove Fried from Game 1 was understandable, but Boone has not earned the benefit of the doubt because the decisions are clearly coming from a list of options and orders given to him from the analytics department.

That could be a problem against the Blue Jays if the Yankees do something inexplicable like overthink and bench Chisholm, who is a rally-starter and a solid defender.

The Blue Jays Took Advantage of Yankees’ Lapses To Win the Division

The Yankees had extended stretches of poor play, which allowed the Blue Jays to win the season series and take the AL East, getting them a bye to the ALDS. Now they start at zero-zero, though New York must wait to start Fried until Game 2.

Toronto may be without starting shortstop Bo Bichette, nursing a knee sprain.

The Jays had a strange season. Their big free agent acquisition, slugger Anthony Santander, was a disaster with a .565 OPS before a shoulder injury sidelined him.

George Springer led the team with 32 homers and a .959 OPS.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. had 23 homers and an .848 OPS. They have black holes in their lineup. Andres Gimenez was awful a the plate with a .210/.285/.313 slash line. Before he got hurt, Bichette was excellent, hitting 18 homers and posting a .311 batting average.

The starting rotation is functional, but not great. Kevin Gausman led with a 3.8 bWAR. He’s pitched well against the Yankees. Chris Bassett was 11-9 in 31 starts and a 2.1 bWAR. The bullpen is shaky. Starter Jose Berrios was moved to the pen. He could be a crucial factor in the series.

Closer Jeff Hoffman finished an MLB-high 59 games, saving 33. He struck out 84 in 68 innings, but gave up 15 home runs. That will not work against the Yankees.

Yankees vs Blue Jays MLB ALDS Pick

Even though the Blue Jays won the division over the Yankees based on a tiebreaker, New York has the better roster from top to bottom, particularly if the Jays do not have Bichette. While Toronto seemed to have the Yankees’ number in the regular season, New York is playoff-tested while Toronto is not.

If this ends up as a battle of the bullpens — which postseason series often do — the Jays are going to lose unless they use a starter instead of their primary regular season relievers. The Yankees are heavily favored (-150) over the Blue Jays (+130), and they will take the series in 4 games.