MLB World Series Odds: Post-Trade Deadline Posers and Pretenders

• MLB World Series odds have changed after the very active trade deadline
• A previous post examined the teams that improved the most
• Some teams, however, were more style than substance, and the odds reflect it
• It is important to recognize when a team’s flashiness should not be misconstrued as quality

World Series Post-Trade Deadline Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers

Acquired RHP Paul Gervase from the Rays, RHP Brock Stewart from the Twins, and OF Alex Call from the Nationals

The Dodgers seem to be pulling the Wilpon Mets (cheap) trick of treating veteran players like Blake Snell returning from injury as though they are midseason acquisitions. The difference is that with the Dodgers, it’s not because they don’t want to spend or that they don’t have the assets to trade for upgrades.

Still, given Snell’s and Tyler Glasnow’s lengthy injury histories, Clayton Kershaw’s age, and the constraints Shohei Ohtani has faced during his return to pitching, not acquiring a starter is a risk. They even traded Dustin May to the Red Sox.

Instead, they focused on the bullpen.

Stewart is a former Dodger. They drafted him, and he pitched for them in the majors from 2016 through part of 2019. In 2025 for the Twins, he’s posted a 2.38 ERA and struck out 41 batters in 34 innings. He has a bWAR of 1.4.

Gervase has pitched in five big league games for the Rays. In the minors, he’s struck out 253 batters in 155 innings.

Call is an extra outfielder.

They’d better hope their remaining starters can stay healthy enough to give them the 4-5 innings they want in the postseason, their bullpen holds up, and their bashers bash. If not, they’re going bye-bye early in the playoffs.

The Dodgers’ World Series odds are far too enthusiastic.

Houston Astros

Acquired SS Carlos Correa from the Twins, OF Jesus Sanchez from the Marlins, and INF Ramon Urias from the Orioles

Fans and media love reunions and the narratives that accompany them. Correa was the Astros’ first overall draft pick in 2012 and won a World Series with them in the tainted year of 2017. In returning to Houston, he will shift to third base to accommodate his replacement, Jeremy Peña.

While this trade drew headlines because Correa was going back where he started, expectations should be tempered.

Correa homered on Sunday against the Red Sox, but he is a fraction of the player he was the first time around with Houston and his noticeable decline and injury woes were part of the reason the Astros allowed him to leave in the first place. His last foray into free agency was rife with problems. He failed physicals with the Giants and Mets causing both teams to back out of agreements with him and he eventually returned to the Twins.

He’s an ok player now. A difference maker? Not a major one.

San Diego Padres

Acquired RHP Mason Miller and LHP JP Sears from the Athletics, 1B/DH Ryan O’Hearn and OF Ramon Laureano from the Orioles, LHP Nestor Cortes from the Brewers, C Freddy Fermin from the Royals, and INF Will Wagner from the Blue Jays

Every winter, A.J. Preller and the Padres win the Hot Stove Championship.

Every summer, A.J. Preller and the Padres win the MLB Trade Deadline.

Every autumn, they lose in the playoffs, if they even make it at all.

Despite that objective reality, the media and fans continually falls for Preller’s shtick.

The media’s infatuation is simple: He makes their jobs easier by giving them things to write about and increasing their web traffic. The fans like the acknowledged excitement Preller brings to the deadline with his aggressiveness.

But he’s been the Padres head of baseball operations for 11 years, had an unlimited payroll, and was allowed by late-owner Peter Seidler to do whatever he wanted, literally.

He’s made all these trades for stars including Juan Soto, signed Manny Machado, signed Xander Bogaerts, acquired Fernando Tatis Jr., traded for Dylan Cease, and now acquired Mason Miller, among many other glossy names.

The team has won absolutely nothing.

They already had a great bullpen. Did they need Miller? O’Hearn helps their offense, which has not been great, but are they much better today than they were on Friday morning?

The reality for the Padres and Preller is that with Peter Seidler gone and control of the franchise in flux, he will eventually need to slash payroll. They have contracts, like Machado’s and Jake Cronenworth’s, that are impossible to move.

Oddsmakers don’t think they’re going to win this year and they’re almost assuredly correct.

What’s Your Take on the Post-Deadline MLB World Series Odds?

Oddsmakers use various methods to come to their conclusions, but there are many ways to assess which teams might win the World Series.

So, what’s your feeling on the World Series and how the MLB Trade Deadline may have changed who wins and who doesn’t?

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