MLB Playoffs: Dodgers vs Phillies NLDS Pick — LA Takes on Philly in an Evenly-Matched Series

• For the Dodgers-Phillies MLB NLDS, two evenly-matched squads with big-time star power square off
• LA quickly dispatched the upstart Reds on the Wild Card round in two straight games, outscoring Cincinnati 18-9
• Philly (96-66) won the NL East easily with a deep, veteran roster and a winning pedigree
• The Phillies won 4 of 6 games during the regular season
• The franchises have met in the postseason 5X in 1977, 1978, 1983, 2008, and 2009, with the Dodgers winning the first 2 and the Phillies taking the last 3

Is LA “Back” or Were the Reds Just Out of Their Depth?

After a shaky, injury-ravaged regular season in which the Dodgers won a somewhat disappointing (for them) 93 games, LA flicked the Reds away like their mere presence at Dodger Stadium was an affront to their olfactory senses. The on-field celebration was just a shade more enthusiastic than winning a random spring training game.

For LA, scoring was not the problem during the season. Their issue was the rampant injuries to their high-priced starting rotation. Blake Snell was limited to 11 starts in the regular season due to left shoulder inflammation, but he tossed 7 innings against the Reds, allowing 4 hits, 2 runs, and striking out 9.

Snell has a history of excellence in the postseason with a 3.23 ERA in 13 appearances with the Rays, Padres, and Dodgers. Their bullpen was a problem during the regular season, but Blake Treinen pitched well against the Reds. Still, they are patching it together. The Phillies are not the easy mark that the Reds were.

After an underwhelming season, Mookie Betts batted .667 against the Reds with 6 hits in 9 at-bats with 3 doubles. Teoscar Hernandez homered twice, as did Shohei Ohtani.

Catcher Will Smith is nearing a full return. He could have caught in an emergency against the Reds. He posted a .901 OPS during the regular season before suffering a hairline fracture of his right hand. His return will be welcomed.

The Rested Phillies Have a Pitching Advantage Over the Dodgers

If someone asked you who led MLB in bWAR in 2025, you’d automatically think of Ohtani, Aaron Judge, or numerous other candidates before getting to the player who did lead MLB in bWAR: Phillies starting pitcher Christopher Sanchez.

Sanchez had an 8.0 bWAR, started 32 games, struck out 212 in 202 innings, walked 44, gave up a paltry 12 home runs, and had a 2.50 ERA with a 2.55 FIP.

While replacing the injured Zack Wheeler is a tall order, Philly did an admirable job of it with Sanchez, Jesus Luzardo, and Ranger Suarez.

They won 96 games despite losing Wheeler for the season with thoracic outlet surgery and Aaron Nola having a stress fracture in his ribcage, posting a 6.01 ERA.

President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski boosted the team at the deadline as he usually does. They acquired flamethrowing close Jhoan Duran from the Twins. With Philly, Duran posted a 2.18 ERA, saved 16 games, and struck out 27 in 20.2 innings.

On offense, the Phillies have a deep, diverse offense led by Kyle Schwarber’s NL-leading 56 homers and MLB-leading 132 RBI. Trea Turner won the NL batting title with a .304 average and stole 36 bases in 43 tries.

As a club, they did not hit as many homers as they usually do, though they did have 212 as a team. Bryce Harper was second on the team with 27 homers. Nick Castellanos hit 17, Max Kepler had 18, Turner had 15.

Midseason acquisition Harrison Bader was a key upgrade batting .305 with 5 homers, and Gold Glove-caliber defense in center field.

Dodgers vs Phillies MLB NLDS Pick

The Dodgers’ bashing the Reds should not be viewed as anything more than the defending World Series champs beating up on an inferior opponent, though Snell’s performance is encouraging.

When looking at this matchup on paper, the Dodgers have more raw power than the Phillies do, but the Phillies’ starting pitching and bullpen are deeper. Philly also benefits from the weeklong rest they earned with the second-best record in the NL.

Both teams have a wealth of playoff experience, but LA is still shorthanded and patching together their bullpen. Philly has an advantage in the dugout with LA manager Dave Roberts easily replaceable on a moment’s notice and Rob Thomson allowed the run the team from the dugout based on game circumstances instead of orders from the front office.

Though the Dodgers are favored in the series (-130) over the Phillies (+110), Philly has better starting pitching and a better bullpen. If they keep the Dodgers in the park, they should take the series reasonably easily in 4 games.