MLB Playoffs: Cubs vs Brewers NLDS Pick — Former Milwaukee Manager Craig Counsell Faces Former Team

• In the Cubs-Brewers MLB NLDS, speedy and opportunistic Milwaukee (97-65, best record in MLB) takes on high-priced Chicago, fresh off getting by the Padres in the NL Wild Card round
• Cubs manager and former Brewers skipper Craig Counsell returns to face his former team, which has done better without him
• The Brewers won with excellent defense, speed, a good bullpen, and team-oriented play
• Chicago was 7-6 vs Milwaukee in the regular season; the teams have never met in the postseason

Chicago Won a Hard-Fought Wild Card Series over the Padres

The Cubs were somewhat overlooked when they took on the Padres. San Diego made flashy moves — as usual — at the trade deadline acquiring Mason Miller, among others, and were the media and fans’ darling expected to finally make the long postseason run.

Instead, Chicago got the clutch home runs and their bullpen matched San Diego’s. Nico Hoerner batted .364 in the series with superlative defense. Carson Kelly was 3 for 8 with a home run. Seiya Suzuki had a key home run.

Veteran starter Matthew Boyd provided 4.1 solid innings in Game 1, giving up 1 run.

The Brewers are a far different animal than the Padres. Milwaukee entered the season with limited expectations after another tumultuous offseason in which they traded away closer Devin Williams and let Willy Adames walk because of financial constraints. They became a better team despite their subtractions.

A prevailing storyline will be Cubs manager Craig Counsell facing his former team. Counsell managed the Brewers for nine years compiling a 707-625 record and making the playoffs five times. He unexpectedly left for the Cubs after the 2023 season. The Brewers won consecutive division titles — beating out the Cubs in both years — under Pat Murphy. In 2025, they had the best record in the majors.

The Workmanlike Brewers Do the Small Things

If the Brewers were able to break through and win a championship, they could easily be compared to another team whose mantra was “do your job,” the New England Patriots of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady.

They just do their job and do so admirably.

But they haven’t broken through yet. Is this the year?

For them, the team takes precedence over the individual. Given Milwaukee’s status as a mid-market team and their financial limits, this is by necessity instead of tacit decision, but they just keep replacing key people effectively. They did not miss a beat when David Stearns walked away as president of baseball operations, when Counsell left, when they traded away Williams, or lost Adames to the Giants.

Pitcher Quinn Priester exemplifies what the Brewers do. A former Pirates’ 1st round draft pick, he bounced to the Red Sox. Milwaukee acquired him right before the season started for two low-level minor leaguers. Never given a long-term opportunity, he grabbed his chance with the Brewers, won 13 and lost 3 in 29 games (24 starts), posted a 3.32 ERA, and accrued a 3.0 bWAR.

He epitomizes the Brewers. The team was second in MLB in stolen bases; sixth in total zone fielding runs above average; and overcame their lack of power with opportunism.

They have one of baseball’s better setup men in Abner Uribe, who struck out 90 in 75.1 innings, a solid closer in Trevor Megill, and a functional starting rotation fronted by Freddy Peralta (5.5 bWAR and a 17-6 record) and Priester. Star righty Brandon Woodruff is questionable but possible for the NLDS roster as he recovers from a lat strain.

Cubs vs Brewers MLB NLDS Pick

These teams win games in vastly different ways. The Cubs rely on power while the Brewers function based on speed and defense.

In a 3 of 5 series, which is more important?

Milwaukee’s game is more resistant to slumps. They will always be able to run and catch the ball. If the Brewers’ pitchers keep the Cubs’ bats in the ballpark, the games will be close and come down to a battle of the bullpens.

Milwaukee’s pen is slightly more trustworthy. Their speed is difficult to stop and they will always catch the ball and take advantage of opponents’ missteps. Of the two teams, the Brewers have the better frontline starter in Peralta.

Oddsmakers have the Cubs at -104 to win the series; the Brewers are -116.

The Brewers will handle the Cubs and advance to the NLCS in 5 games.