MLB 2025: Atlanta Braves Over/Under For Wins

• MLB oddsmakers have the 2025 Atlanta Braves’ over/under wins at 88.5
• Atlanta won 89 in 2024 and lost in the Wild Card Round to the Padres 2 games to 0
• The Braves had a very quiet offseason in terms of acquisitions, though several stalwarts departed
• Their one major acquisition, Jurickson Profar, has been suspended for 80 games due to a positive PED test

Atlanta Is Having an Unacknowledged Transition Year

The one flaw that has frequently befallen the Braves and other teams that have had extended runs of success is that they think it will continue unabated forever. That’s what doomed them after their streak of consecutive division titles from the early ’90s to the mid-aughts.

After a World Series title in 2021 and consecutive 100+ win seasons, reality hit in 2024 as they fell to 89 wins. They still made the playoffs but were dispatched by the Padres like an irritant.

After 2024, key contributors Charlie Morton, Travis d’Arnaud, Max Fried, and A.J. Minter left. They did not replace them, instead hoping that youngsters Drake Baldwin, Jarred Kelenic, and AJ Smith-Shawver make up for the losses. They also need Spencer Strider to return effectively from Tommy John surgery.

After 2024, they seemed to blame hitting coach Kevin Seitzer for their decline after he was granted significant credit for their rise.

The big acquisition, Profar, had his career year in 2024 for the Padres and netted a 3-year, $42 million deal from Atlanta…and subsequently failed a drug test.

The Braves Maintain a Productive Core, But…

Many of the same players who served as key components to their recent success are still there. Austin Riley, Matt Olson, Ronald Acuňa Jr., Sean Murphy, Michael Harris II, Reynaldo Lopez, and Strider are all signed long-term. Chris Sale won the 2024 NL Cy Young Award.

Despite these positives, they are in a difficult division. The Mets signed Juan Soto and retained their 2024 key contributors. The Phillies have a proven cast and a willingness to be aggressive to improve. The Nationals, though seemingly waiting out another bad season, have talent.

The Braves have been good and lucky, and their luck might be running out.

Braves’ Over/Under Wins Will Fall Below 88.5

There are too many ifs for the Braves to repeat their 100-win dominance of 2022-23. They can certainly approach 90 wins if everything goes right. Still, they are playing too many players like Kelenic, who are not good. Without Profar and their pitching problems, they will not reach 89 wins.