2026 NFL Draft Odds: Arch Manning Staying at Texas Impacts Other QBs

• Archie Manning saying his grandson Arch Manning is unlikely to enter the 2026 NFL Draft has roiled the odds
• Other draft-eligible QBs can benefit from Arch staying in school (if he does)
• The likeliest teams to “win” a top 5 draft pick might not need a QB
• Could anything change Arch’s mind?

2026 NFL Draft 1st Overall Pick QB Odds

The Other QBs

Arch Manning was set to be the center of attention as he embarks on his first season as the University of Texas starter. He is one of the favorites for the Heisman Trophy, and there was speculation as to where he might wind up if he were to enter the 2026 NFL Draft.

His grandfather Archie largely crushed that notion with his statement — caveated by minor wiggle room — that he expected his grandson to remain a Longhorn for his senior season.

This puts other potential 2026 QB draftees in the spotlight. Oddsmakers have put the following six at the top of the board:

LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina

In his first year as a starter in 2024, the big (6’3″, 240 pounds) and elusive Sellers threw for 18 TD passes and only 7 picks. He had a 65.6 completion percentage, and threw for 2,534 yards as the Gamecocks went 9-4 and finished 19th in the Final AP poll. Sellers is a running QB. He accrued 674 yards on 166 attempts, scoring 7 TDs.

Drew Allar, Penn State

Allar is already running a pro-style offense at Penn State. He improved his numbers from his sophomore season to his junior season. As a sophomore in 2023, he led the Big Ten in TD passes with 25. In 2024, he threw for 24 against 8 interceptions. In 16 games, he passed for 3,327 yards and had a 66.5 completion percentage. He runs occasionally, but only averaged 3.1 yards per attempt last season. In the pros, the 6’5″, 236-pounder will be a pocket passer.

Garrett Nussmeier, LSU

Nussmeier is a fifth-year senior. He’s somewhat smallish at 6’2″, 172 pounds. In 2025, he led the SEC in competitions with 337 and attempts with 525. He threw for 29 TDs and led the conference in picks with 12. He tries hard to make plays even when he probably shouldn’t. He’s not a runner at all.

Cade Klubnik, Clemson

The 6’2″, 210-pound Klubnik enters his third year as Clemson’s starting QB. In 2024, he threw for 36 TD passes against 6 interceptions. He had a 63.4 completion percentage in the Tigers’ 10-4 season in which they finished 14th in the Final AP poll. Klubnik rushed for 463 yards on 119 carries and scored 7 TDs.

Sam Leavitt, Arizona State

Leavitt, 6’2″, 205 pounds, transferred to Arizona State from Michigan State after the 2023 season. As the Sun Devils’ starter, he threw for 24 TDs and 6 picks, accruing 2,885 yards. He ran for 443 yards on 110 carries. Arizona State finished the year 7th in the Final AP poll with a record of 11-3, a 45-19 win over Iowa State in the Big 12 Championship Game, and a 39-31 loss to Texas in the Peach Bowl. (Arch Manning did not play for Texas.)

Fernando Mendoza, Indiana

Mendoza transferred from California to Indiana for the 2025 season. In 11 games for the Golden Bears in 2024, he threw for 16 TDs and was picked off 6 times. He completed nearly 69 percent of his passes. The 6’5″, 225-pound Mendoza does not run, amassing 105 yards on the ground on 87 attempts. His release is like lightning.

Which NFL Teams Are Likeliest To Get the #1 Pick?

The 2026 NFL Draft odds are one factor to think about, but when considering which player might be the first overall pick and if it will be a QB, it’s important to look at the NFL teams that are likeliest to “win” that opportunity.

These four teams could bottom out to get that first pick (bearing in mind that there are always one or two relatively unexpected disasters every year in the NFL):

Cleveland Browns

They were 3-14 in 2024, and their quarterback situation is…muddled with four QBs in camp, Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, Dillon Gabriel, and Shedeur Sanders. Barring Sanders overshooting the lack of enthusiasm the league had for him, they’re a prime candidate to need a QB again next year.

Another bad year, and GM Andrew Berry and head coach Kevin Stefanski are almost assuredly gone with a new regime and rebuild in Cleveland.

Las Vegas Raiders

The Raiders should be better with Pete Carroll in charge, Geno Smith under center, and electrifying rookie running back Ashton Jeanty. But the AFC West is a tough gig, and a 4-13 season could get the #1 pick in a parity-laden season. They need a young QB and will take one.

New York Giants

They drafted Jaxson Dart in the first round of the 2025 Draft. Russell Wilson will begin the season as the starter, but if the team is bad again, they will play Dart.

Head coach Brian Daboll is trying to save his job, but if the Giants get the #1 pick, there will be a new head coach. NFL evaluators were split on what they expect the strong-armed Dart to be, and this is one scenario where Arch Manning might come out to be drafted by his Uncle Eli’s former team.

A new coach and possibly a new GM could want their own QB.

New Orleans Saints

They drafted Tyler Shough in the second round of the 2025 Draft, but this is the other setting that could coax Manning out of Texas and into the draft. He went to high school in Louisiana, his father and uncles grew up there, and grandfather Archie Manning is an icon from his fraught time as the Saints QB.

The pressure to take Arch will be immense if they get the first pick and he and his family express the willingness to back down on their soft vow that he’d stay in college for his senior year.

2026 NFL Draft #1 Overall Pick Prediction

If Arch Manning does not come out, the QB who looks the most polished and ready to walk into a pro offense and take charge is Drew Allar.