MLB Draft Predictions: Breaking Down the Top Pick and More (2025)

• Our 2025 MLB Draft predictions look at the top 4 picks in the annual ritual, scheduled for Sunday, July 13
• The Washington Nationals hold the first overall pick and are in turmoil after firing longtime general manager Mike Rizzo a week ago
• The Angels, Mariners, and Rockies hold the next three picks
• LSU lefty pitcher Kade Anderson is the heavy favorite to go first overall

#1 Pick Overall Odds

Washington Nationals – Ethan Holliday, INF, Stillwater, OK

Normally, teams leave at least some clues as to their plans based on what they’ve done in the past, their organizational philosophy, how far they are from contention, and myriad other factors. With the Nationals, that can be thrown out the window with Rizzo’s surprise termination a week before the draft.

Assistant Mike DeBartolo was named interim GM. Nats’ scouting director Danny Haas is still in place. Haas has been the scouting director since late 2023. In last year’s draft, the Nationals selected Wake Forest infielder Seaver King 10th overall.

Having just fired their GM with a more extensive search for a replacement presumably in the offing after the season, and ownership’s reluctance to spend money, they should not be expected to contend in the near future.

Is it better to draft a college pitcher or a high school infielder, given their circumstances?

Ethan Holliday is the son of former MLB star Matt Holliday. His brother is Jackson Holliday, who was drafted first overall by the Orioles in 2022 and was in the majors two years later.

Holliday is the safer pick.

#2 Pick Overall Odds

Los Angeles Angels – Aiva Arquette, INF, Oregon State

Although pitchers are favored to go second overall with Liam Doyle, Kade Anderson, and Seth Hernandez having the highest odds, the Angels under GM Perry Minasian have gone overwhelmingly pitcher-heavy in their drafts during his entire tenure running their baseball ops. In 2021, for example, all 20 players drafted were pitchers. It was an unprecedented focus on arms.

Oregon State’s Aiva Arquette batted .354 in 2025 with a 1.115 OPS and 19 home runs. Players who can man shortstop can play just about anywhere on the field. Drafting another pitcher this high does not make a great deal of sense for LA.

He has amazing defensive range at shortstop, and his loose-limbed batting style generates impressive power.

#3 Pick Overall Odds

Seattle Mariners – Seth Hernandez, RHP, Corona, CA

Mariners President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto tends to tilt toward high school players in the first round. Third overall is a higher pick than he’s accustomed to having, and the Mariners are a win-now team, so there is a chance that he will look for a college player who can provide more immediate help in the next two to three years.

Still, Hernandez has a smooth and easy motion that doesn’t put much stress on his arm. Dipoto, a former pitcher, will appreciate the potential upside and likelihood that the polished righty might not need the five years that pitchers usually do when taken out of high school. He’s viewed as the best high school pitcher in the draft.

#4 Pick Overall Odds

Colorado Rockies – Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee

The Rockies are an undeniable mess from top to bottom. It’s currently a place where star amateurs, particularly pitchers, want to avoid. If they draft a high school player like Jojo Parker, who is committed to Mississippi State, it’s difficult to see him signing to join the Rockies organization.

That leaves them with several pitchers to choose from. Pitching in Colorado requires a special type of arm with durability and size. Jamie Arnold is on the smaller side at 6’1″, 188. Doyle is 6’2″ 220. At Tennessee University in 2025, he struck out 164 in 95.2 innings and allowed 63 hits. He also has a personality that would welcome the challenge of being one of the few pitchers to succeed in Colorado.

2025 MLB Draft Predictions

Except for that rare year when there is a consensus #1 overall along the lines of Bryce Harper or Stephen Strasburg, it’s a guessing game to make accurate MLB Draft predictions. One deviation, such as the Nats taking Kade Anderson instead of Ethan Holliday, can upend even the most well-thought-out mock draft.

So, who do you think will comprise the first four picks in the upcoming 2025 MLB Draft?

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