The AP Top 25 preseason rankings were released on August 12. Many of the same teams rank near the top, while some new teams have also risen in the rankings. A few notable powerhouses have dropped as well. Let’s take a look at these early rankings and project which teams have the best shot at making the expanded CFP.
AP Top 25 Rankings & CFP Title Odds
#1 – Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia was unable to repeat as national champions for the third straight time last season. After leading the nation for most of the year, they lost in the SEC title game to Alabama, 27-24. A 12-1 record with that defeat is usually enough to make the CFP, but a peculiar set of head-to-head results forced Georgia out of the top-5. They return to #1 in these preseason rankings. QB Carson Beck should lead them to a top spot in the expanded CFP.
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Pick
Georgia (+300)
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#2 – Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State enters the season ranked #2 in the country. They have aspirations to return to the CFP Final for the first time since 2020. Still seeking their first national championship in the Ryan Day era, the Buckeyes should benefit from Jim Harbaugh’s departure from Michigan. On the other hand, the Big-10 expanded this offseason, adding four more potential rivals. Ohio State had a big chunk of roster turnover, but remains superbly talented.
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Pick
Ohio State (+400)
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50% up to $1000
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#3 – Oregon Ducks
Oregon made a notable move from the Pac-12 to the Big-10 this offseason, as the former conference collapsed and the latter grew even more competitive. The Ducks are the only of the four teams transitioning from the Pac-12 to the Big-10 to start highly ranked. Coming in at #3, there are huge expectations for Oregon’s first year in their new conference. Pencil in Oct 12 vs Ohio State and Nov 11 at Michigan as their most crucial matchups.
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Pick
Oregon (+700)
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50% up to $1000
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#4 – Texas Longhorns
Texas finally cracked the CFP field for the first time last year, but came up short in the semis. They enter this season ranked in the top-4 once again, with an even bigger cushion now that the CFP field has expanded to 12 teams. The Longhorns will face increased competition this year, after moving from the Big-12 to the SEC. The SEC has 4 of the top 6 teams, while the Big-12 has none in the top-10. QB Quinn Ewers is a Heisman hopeful.
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Pick
Texas (+800)
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50% up to $1000
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#5 – Alabama Crimson Tide
Alabama returned to the CFP last season after missing out in 2022, but lost to Michigan in the semifinals. Their SEC title win over Georgia and overtime game against the eventual champions indicated that the Crimson Tide may be returning to form. With a CFP that grew to 12 teams this year, Alabama won’t have to sweat quite as much should they lose a game or two. That being said, the SEC is loaded with talent, keeping the pressure on.
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Pick
Alabama (+1200)
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50% up to $1000
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#6 – Ole Miss Rebels
Ole Miss rounds out the 4th SEC team in the top-6, after winning the Peach Bowl last season. They’ve had some solid success under head coach Lane Kiffin, who took over in 2020. Kiffin has a record of 34-15 (.694) in four seasons, a stark contrast to the 20-28 record they held in the four seasons prior to him taking over. The new 12-team field provides the Rebels with a significantly better chance of cracking the CFP for the first time.
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Pick
Ole Miss (+1400)
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50% up to $1000
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#7 – Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Notre Dame is perennially in CFP contention, but has struggled to crack the field. The Brian Kelly era ended with no titles, and the Marcus Freeman era began with appearances in the Sun Bowl and Gator Bowl. Like many CFP hopefuls, the Fighting Irish should benefit from the change to include 12 teams in the playoff field. Notre Dame will need to recover from losing some key players to the draft and portal, but also brought in many top recruits.
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Pick
Notre Dame (+1800)
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50% up to $1000
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#8 – Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State rebounded over the past few seasons, rising back into contention. Unfortunately, they ran into the wall that is Ohio State and Michigan, struggling to overcome their in-conference rivals. Failing to do so has kept the Nittany Lions out of the CFP. An expanded field of 12 teams should help their chances, but the Big-10 will also have more teams this season. QB Drew Allar improved greatly last season and will be key to their success.
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Pick
Penn State (+2200)
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50% up to $1000
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#9 – Michigan Wolverines
Michigan was the undefeated champion last season, but enters this season with some dark clouds above. The major storyline was the Wolverines unapologetic cheating scandal that played a large part in their success under head coach Jim Harbaugh. Additionally, both Harbaugh and QB J.J. McCarthy have advanced to the NFL, leaving Michigan with major holes to be filled. They still project as a top-10 team, but may wind up on the ropes.
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Pick
Michigan (+2500)
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50% up to $1000
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#10 – Florida State Seminoles
Florida State will be aiming to overcome a massively disappointing end to their 2023-24 season. After finishing the regular season and ACC title game at 13-0, many assumed the Seminoles would be a lock to make the CFP. Instead, they were passed up for three teams with a loss, presumably because of a weak ACC schedule. A 63-3 loss to Georgia in the Orange Bowl worsened optics, despite the opt-outs. They’ll aim to right the ship this year.
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Pick
Florida State (+3000)
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50% up to $1000
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#11 – Missouri Tigers
Missouri is aiming to build on a breakout season in which they finished 11-2 with a Cotton Bowl victory over Ohio State. The Tigers rode a stellar defense to the most success they’ve had in a decade, and return several key players. While the expanded CFP field will certainly raise their chances of competing for a title, Missouri faces an uphill battle in a tough SEC. They enter the season ranked #11 overall, but 5th among SEC teams.
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Pick
Missouri (+4000)
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50% up to $1000
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#12 – Utah Utes
Utah is one of the most intriguing teams in the country this season. QB Cameron Rising’s breakout 2022-23 campaign put the Utes on the map as a CFP contender, but a knee injury cost him the entirety of the 2023-24 season. Coupled with Rising’s return from injury is Utah’s move to the Big-12, with the Utes entering the season as the favorites to win their new conference. Rising provides stability at 25 years old, but is also out of practice.
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Pick
Utah (+6000)
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50% up to $1000
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#13 – LSU Tigers
LSU has the 8th-best odds to win it all, but landed at #13 in the AP Top 25 preseason poll. This is likely due to a high level of roster turnover making the Tigers tougher to pin down. They’ve reached 10 wins in each of the first two seasons of the Brian Kelly era, but will be fielding a completely new offense in 2024. QB Jayden Daniels and his top WRs, Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr., were all drafted in the 1st-round of the 2024 NFL draft.
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Pick
LSU (+2000)
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50% up to $1000
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#14 – Clemson Tigers
Clemson has slid quite a bit over the past few seasons. The Tigers made six consecutive appearances in the CFP from its second year in 2015 to 2020. Since then, they failed to earn a spot in three straight seasons. Last year’s 9-4 record was Clemson’s worst result since 2010 and the third time in a row that they finished ranked in the 10-20 range after opening the season in the top-10. The 2024 pollsters appear to have taken notice of that.
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Pick
Clemson (+4500)
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50% up to $1000
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#15 – Tennessee Volunteers
Tennessee made a notable climb in the first three seasons of the Josh Heupel era. In the 12 years since they last won 10+ games before Heupel took over, the Volunteers went 73-75. Four different coaches led the team during that span, none able to return Tennessee to the glory of the late-90s. That may finally be changing, with Heupel holding a 27-12 record so far as head coach. Tennessee will be aiming to sneak into the 12-team CFP.
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Pick
Tennessee (+3500)
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50% up to $1000
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#16 – Oklahoma Sooners
Oklahoma joins Texas as one of the two teams moving to the SEC this season. It will be an interesting test for the Sooners, especially since it comes at a time when they haven’t been playing their best football. After going 78-14 from 2015 to 2021, Oklahoma was 16-10 over the past two years. The SEC will only increase the difficulty for them, though the Sooners boast an increased recruiting class as well. They could be a sleeper this season.
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Pick
Oklahoma (+6500)
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50% up to $1000
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#17 – Oklahoma State Cowboys
Oklahoma State’s long odds to win it all are a bit peculiar. At this point all teams are long shots, but the Cowboys shouldn’t sit so much lower than other teams in this range. Oklahoma State is ranked the highest of all Big-12 teams outside of Utah, who may not bounce back if Rising doesn’t return to form. Ultimately, the highest ranked Big-12 team will claim a spot in the CFP, so 200-1 odds to win out from there isn’t all that bad.
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Pick
Oklahoma State (+20000)
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50% up to $1000
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#18 – Kansas State Wildcats
Kansas State is the Big-12’s de facto defending champion, now that Texas has departed for the SEC. Along with Baylor, they’re one of just two teams in the existing Big-12 to have won the conference’s title since 2015. The Wildcats have been solid lately, posting a 27-13 record since 2021. With the CFP growing to 12 teams, Kansas State sits just a few spots out of the projected field. They’re seeking their first NY6 bowl victory since 2000-01.
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Pick
Kansas State (+8000)
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50% up to $1000
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#19 – Miami Hurricanes
Miami landed one of the top transfers this offseason, QB Cam Ward from Washington State. The Hurricanes are hoping that Ward can break a vicious cycle of disappointments. Miami has reached 10 wins just one time since 2003 when Larry Coker led the team. Since Coker, the Hurricanes have had five different coaches and middling results. Miami ranked in the top-20 in each of the past three seasons, but ended unranked each time.
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Pick
Miami (+5000)
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50% up to $1000
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#20 – Texas A&M Aggies
Texas A&M hasn’t been in CFP contention since the shortened 2020 season, and enters with long odds once again. The Aggies begun the 2021 and 2022 seasons ranked in the top-6 after they recruited what was expected to be a sensational defense. Those results never materialized, however, and Texas A&M finished each season unranked. With the SEC more stacked than ever, the Aggies face an uphill battle to return to relevance.
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Pick
Texas A&M (+4000)
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50% up to $1000
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#21 – Arizona Wildcats
Arizona starts this season ranked 4th amongst the teams in their new conference. The Wildcats have turned their program around under head coach Jedd Fisch. After taking over a team that was winless the year prior, Fisch and the Wildcats went 1-11 in his first season. They made key leaps over the next two years, improving to 5-7 in 2022 and 10-3 last year. Now seen as a much more ideal spot for recruits, Arizona is on the up and up.
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Pick
Arizona (+15000)
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50% up to $1000
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#22 – Kansas Jayhawks
Speaking of the Big-12, Kansas is another team that revived a previously desolate program over the last few seasons. They land as the conference’s fifth and final ranked team in this year’s preseason poll. The Jayhawks are expected to make their third straight bowl game this season, after a 13-year drought from 2009 to 2021 without a bowl game. Kansas is no longer a laughing stock, and may even sneak into an expanded CFP field.
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Pick
Kansas (+17500)
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50% up to $1000
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#23 – USC Trojans
It’s fairly surprising to see USC with relatively short odds to win it all. The Trojans had an abysmal defense last year, and finished 8-5 after entering the season ranked #6. Their biggest saving grace was QB Caleb Williams, who was the #1 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. USC had a great recruiting class, but it’s mostly speculation that they’ll be able to improve in a tougher conference. They need a defensive overhaul to get back into the mix.
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Pick
USC (+5500)
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50% up to $1000
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#24 – NC State Wolfpack
NC State is the third and final ranked team in a rapidly declining ACC. The Wolfpack have maintained a solid of level of success without really threatening the top over the past decade. Since 2010, NC State has finished with 7, 8, or 9 wins in 12 of 14 seasons. That has earned the Wolfpack many bowl appearances, but none with high stakes. A win at Clemson on September 21 would open a path for NC State to sneak into the 12-team CFP.
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Pick
NC State (+10000)
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50% up to $1000
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#25 – Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa is the final team in the AP Top 25 preseason poll. They face a similar challenge to other teams in the Big-10, Big-12, and SEC, suddenly finding an increase in competition from new conference rivals. The Hawkeyes were ranked #25 in last season’s preseason poll too and finished the year at #24, indicating this may be the right ranking. Iowa has better CFP odds with an expanded field, but is more likely to return to the Citrus Bowl.
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Pick
Iowa (+25000)
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New Player Bonus
50% up to $1000
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