Published Jun 9, 7:32pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Jun 9, 7:32pm ET
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Updated Jun 9, 7:32pm ET
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| Toronto Blue Jays | +122 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | -135 |
Jesus Luzardo got off to a rough start this season. Through four starts, he had an ERA of nearly 8. Since then, he's been consistently good for the most part. However, in his last start against the White Sox, he allowed 5 earned runs in 6 innings, including 3 home runs.
For the season, he has a 4.56 ERA. In 73 innings, he's allowed 76 hits and 37 earned runs, walking 21 and striking out 80.
Philly has been on a hot streak, is a likely playoff team, and is within shouting distance of the blazing hot Braves for first place in the NL East.
Kyle Schwarber leads MLB in home runs. Bryce Harper's OPS is approaching .870. Key offensive performers J.T. Realmuto, Bryson Stott, Trea Turner, and Alec Bohm all have OPS's in the .600s.
Brandon Marsh is having a career year, hitting over .330 and with a 2.0 bWAR.
Against Max Scherzer, his ex-teammate with the Nationals, Harper is 6 for 24 with 2 doubles and 3 homers. Realmuto is 7 for 64 with a double and 2 homers. Schwarber is 4 for 18 with 2 homers. Bohm is 6 for 22, all singles. Marsh is 2 for 8 with a double. Stott is 8 for 13 with a double.
Max Scherzer makes his first start since April after being placed on the injured list with a forearm injury and an ankle issue. His last start was on April 24 against the Guardians. He was punished for 7 earned runs in 2.1 innings.
While his numbers need to be put into the proper, injury-related context, he is nearing the end of his Hall of Fame career. In 5 starts, he has a 9.64 ERA. Since he hasn't set foot on a big league mound in over six weeks, he probably won't go too deeply into the game even if he pitches reasonably well.
Kazuma Okamoto leads the Jays in home runs and has been their most consistent power threat. Ernie Clement is having an All-Star season with an OPS above .800. Brandon Valenzuela has filled in admirably and more for the injured Alejandro Kirk with an OPS approaching .810. George Springer is hovering around .200 with his batting average. Vladimir Guerrero is not hitting for power this season.
For Toronto against Luzardo, Springer is 2 for 8 with a home run. Myles Straw is 3 for 9 with a double. Clement is 1 for 2 with a double. Tyler Heineman is 2 for 2 with a double.
Scherzer needs to show that he can still be a viable big league pitcher or Toronto will need to move on. Injuries are one challenge. Age and a decline in quality of stuff is another. The hitters tend to tell a pitcher when it's over.
Luzardo has pitched well for the most part since his terrible start. Philly has had success against Scherzer in the past, so they should take this one in Toronto.
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Pick
Philadelphia Phillies -135
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