Published May 31, 9:09am ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated May 31, 9:09am ET
Updated May 31, 9:09am ET
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| Cincinnati Reds | +113 |
| Atlanta Braves | -136 |
Spencer Strider has a 3.46 ERA and a 5.42 FIP. His FIP over his last three starts is 6.33. The results have been better than the contact quality deserves. Batters have been squaring him up in recent outings, and the ERA has not caught up yet. He is 3-0, but the underlying numbers are sending a different signal.
The case for Atlanta starts with what is behind him. Ronald Acuña Jr. and Matt Olson anchor a lineup that carries a 54-point OPS edge over Cincinnati. The Braves' bullpen has a 1.84 FIP advantage over the Reds' relief corps. When Strider comes out of the game early, which his recent form suggests is likely, Atlanta still has the better back end.
Nick Lodolo has a 5.57 ERA and a 6.53 FIP. His FIP over his last three starts is 5.89. There is no variance story here; the ERA and FIP both say the same thing, and the recent form has not improved on the season average. He has been one of the worst-performing starters in the National League by underlying numbers.
Elly De La Cruz gives Cincinnati its most dangerous bat, and the Reds are capable of getting to a struggling starter on any given day. At home, the lineup can make things uncomfortable. But the gap between what Lodolo has been and what Atlanta's bullpen brings after him is too wide to close on the lineup alone.
Strider's underlying numbers are rough, but Lodolo's are worse by a full run of FIP and by every recent metric available. Atlanta also has the better bullpen by nearly two runs of FIP and the better lineup.
This is not a pick on Strider. It's a pick on everything around him. Atlanta handles this one.
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Pick
Atlanta Braves -136
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