Published May 31, 9:03am ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated May 31, 9:03am ET
Updated May 31, 9:03am ET
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| Los Angeles Dodgers | -230 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | +187 |
Andrew Painter has a 5.40 ERA and a 4.45 FIP. The ERA has been bad; the FIP says the underlying quality has been somewhat better than that, though not good enough to inspire confidence. He has been getting hit, giving up runs in bunches, and Philadelphia has had to lean on the bullpen earlier than anyone wants. He is a 1-5 pitcher going to Dodger Stadium on a Sunday night.
The Phillies lineup has the pieces to score. Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber anchor an order that can do damage in any park. But running a .654-range OPS into Yamamoto's recent form is not a recipe for run production.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto has a 3.09 ERA and a 3.84 FIP. His ERA has been running below his FIP for most of the year, meaning he has had some help from sequencing and defense. The actual pitch quality is in the high-3s range, still very good, just not as dominant as the ERA alone suggests.
The lineup behind him is the other half of this matchup. Los Angeles has a 110-point OPS advantage over Philadelphia on the night. Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman lead an order that has been the most productive unit in the National League for most of the season. Yamamoto does not need to be great tonight; he needs to be functional.
Painter is 1-5 with a 5.40 ERA walking into the best home lineup in the NL. Yamamoto is the more reliable arm and does not need to be at his best to hold this game. The 110-point OPS edge does the rest.
-230 is steep but this matchup earns it. Dodgers.
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers -230
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Pick
Los Angeles Dodgers -230
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