World Cup 2026: 3 Long Shots to Consider This Summer

The FIFA World Cup is synonymous with shock results, with iconic moments from soccer history taking place on the global stage.

Shock results have been a common trend throughout history, ranging from Senegal’s excellent win against France in 2002, to Saudi Arabia’s giant-killing win over Argentina in 2022.

It has been common throughout World Cup history that nations have also outperformed their odds, reflected by Croatia reaching each of the last two finals, and Morocco becoming the first African nation to reach the final four in 2022.

But, who are some of the nations that could be best placed to upset the odds this summer? Find our 3 long shots to consider for the World Cup 2026 here.

World Cup Long Shots

Ecuador (+10000)

Sebastián Beccacece’s Ecuador are the most interesting outsider at this summer’s World Cup. La Tri dominated in the South American qualification, finishing higher in the standings than Brazil and recording famous wins over Argentina and Uruguay.

They have continued to show this year that they can compete against the very best, holding Morocco and the Netherlands to draws. Their reliable defensive record will be key to their chances, with their pace on the counter-attack being a major threat in the transition.

It could be argued that they will be better suited to playing against higher-ranked nations, and that will be a notable factor to consider as the tournament progresses. Ecuador could top Group E above Germany, with the European nation having crashed out in the opening round in the last two editions.

A tricky run through the knockout stages could include matches against France (round of 16) and the Netherlands (quarterfinals). But, their excellent defensive record is worth considering, and they could surprise a lot of fans this summer.

Senegal (+10000)

As a member of the England Travel Club, I get to see a lot of opposing nations during the qualification cycle, but few were as impressive against the Three Lions as Senegal.

The African nation are primed for a bold showing this summer, and their energy in the middle of the park will sap the life out of opponents. Pape Thiaw’s side reached the final at AFCON earlier this year, with their defensive record being a key trend behind their success after keeping four clean sheets.

Continued progress has been made this calendar year following back-to-back wins against Peru and Gambia. Few nations will be better suited by the hot climate in the U.S. this summer, and history suggests that they could repeat their heroics against France from 2002 in the opening round to top Group I.

Achieving that feat would see the bracket open up, as they wouldn’t face a world-leading nation until a potential clash with Spain in the semi-finals.

Japan (+6000)

Japan are another nation that I was impressed with after seeing them perform in the flesh against England.

The Asian nation were dominant against the Three Lions at Wembley earlier this year, and England were flattered by losing just 1-0. That result was no fluke as Hajime Moriyasu’s team have overcome the odds to beat many world-leading nations since the start of last year, including beating Brazil in October and Ghana in November.

Japan have a reliable record in the World Cup, reaching the round of 16 on four occasions since 2002, and they have been unfortunate in the last two editions when suffering defeat at that stage.

Their dynamic offensive style and reliable defensive structure will make them difficult to overcome this summer, and they are more than capable of progressing through the knockout rounds and reach the quarterfinal stage.