Published May 27, 8:03pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated May 27, 8:03pm ET
Updated May 27, 8:03pm ET
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| Detroit Tigers | -131 |
| Los Angeles Angels | +109 |
Grayson Rodriguez is 1.69 ERA and 2.14 FIP. His FIP over his last three starts is 2.15. Season and recent numbers are saying the same thing, which matters more than either one alone. No regression signal hiding underneath, no contact quality that suggests the ERA is about to catch up with him. He has been this good.
When Rodriguez is right, batters are uncomfortable in the zone rather than waiting him out on the edges. The walk rates and contact quality over the last month back that up. Detroit's lineup will need to catch a mistake or two to score runs Thursday.
The Angels offense is not deep, but they have enough to put runs on the board behind a starter keeping the other side quiet.
Jack Flaherty has a 5.94 ERA and a 5.19 FIP. The ERA is the gentler number, which is backwards from how you want things to run. His FIP over his last three starts is 4.84 — a small recent improvement, but still nearly three full runs worse than Rodriguez on the same afternoon.
Batters have been squaring him up consistently. The ERA has absorbed some of that; the FIP has not let it hide. Flaherty at his best can string together clean innings, and Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson give Detroit real hitters who can take advantage if he gets into a groove. That version of Flaherty shows up sometimes. The numbers say it has not been showing up much lately.
Rodriguez's recent FIP is 2.15. Flaherty's is 4.84. Detroit is the home side at -131, which is a real price to lay on a starter who has been posting FIPs in the high 4s.
The Tigers have enough offense to make this uncomfortable if Flaherty gets through the lineup once clean. Home field is real. But the pitching gap here is about as wide as you will find on a Thursday afternoon slate, and +109 is not reflecting it.
Los Angeles gets the better arm and plus money. Hard to pass on that.
Pick: Los Angeles Angels +109
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Pick
Los Angeles Angels +109
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