Published May 27, 7:56pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated May 27, 7:56pm ET
Updated May 27, 7:56pm ET
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| Baltimore Orioles | -131 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | +109 |
Patrick Corbin is 3.86 ERA and 4.03 FIP on the year. Not a guy you circle on the rotation calendar. His FIP over his last three starts, though, is 3.36 — and that is the number doing the actual work on Thursday.
Some rough early outings have dragged the season figure down in ways the recent starts have not repeated. Command has been sharper. The hard-contact situations that showed up earlier in the year are fewer. He is not an ace and nobody is claiming he is; he has just been quietly functional over the last month.
Daulton Varsho and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. anchor the Toronto lineup behind him. The Blue Jays have been producing against right-handed pitching, which helps with the margin.
Chris Bassitt has a 5.51 ERA and a 4.46 FIP. A full point between them, the results have consistently looked worse than the contact quality underneath, which is the unusual direction for that gap to run. His FIP over his last three starts is 3.72.
He has been better recently. Still worse than Corbin's recent 3.36. The improvement is real; the gap between them is also real, and it runs the same way as everything else in this matchup.
Gunnar Henderson and Adley Rutschman give Baltimore genuine offensive weapons. The Orioles lineup stays patient early and can make a starter work for every out. Corbin will not have a clean night.
Neither starter figures to go six innings. When this game hits the bullpen, Toronto has a 2.72 FIP against Baltimore's 3.51. That is a real edge in the most likely outcome of this game.
Corbin's recent form is tighter than Bassitt's. Toronto's relief arms are better. The Blue Jays are 6-4 over their last ten. At +109, you are getting a slight underdog price on a team with the better pen and the comparable pitching matchup on the road.
Baltimore at -131 needs justification beyond home field. It is not finding that justification in Bassitt's numbers.
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays +109
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Pick
Toronto Blue Jays +109
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