Published May 27, 7:49pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated May 27, 7:49pm ET
Updated May 27, 7:49pm ET
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| Boston Red Sox | +113 |
| Atlanta Braves | -136 |
Chris Sale is 7-3 with a 1.89 ERA and a 3.00 FIP. His FIP over his last three starts is 1.95. So whatever concern you might have about a sub-2.00 ERA being unsustainable, his recent underlying numbers have actually gotten better, not worse.
He is not running hot. He is pitching well. Command has been where it needs to be, and the contact quality backs the results up. The best pitcher on this field Thursday is Sale, and it's not particularly close.
Ronald Acuña Jr. and Matt Olson lead an Atlanta lineup that has been scoring runs consistently. They do not need Sale to be perfect; they just need him to be what he has been.
Payton Tolle has a 2.45 ERA and a 2.90 FIP on the year. His FIP over his last three starts is 3.31. That is a shift worth paying attention to. The season numbers are solid; the recent ones are softer, and the trajectory matters when Atlanta's lineup is coming in as the opponent.
He had a strong start on May 22 against Minnesota (six innings, nine strikeouts), but gave up three runs in the second before settling down. Against a lineup that punishes mistakes earlier in counts, that kind of second inning is harder to escape.
Jarren Duran and Ceddanne Rafaela have kept Boston's offense functional on the home side. The Red Sox have won two of three in this series already, and they will not just hand this game over.
Sale's recent FIP is 1.95. Tolle's is 3.31. Atlanta has a better bullpen FIP on the season, a better lineup OPS by a wide margin, and the best pitcher on the mound. The case for Boston mostly starts and ends with home field and the price.
Sale is the matchup. -136 is the price. Braves.
Pick: Atlanta Braves -136
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Pick
Atlanta Braves -136
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