Published May 22, 8:28am ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated May 22, 8:28am ET
Updated May 22, 8:28am ET
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| Chicago Cubs | -144 |
| Houston Astros | +119 |
Spencer Arrighetti's ERA is 1.50. His FIP is 3.65. That is a gap of 2.15 runs, which is one of the larger ERA-FIP discrepancies in the league right now and indicates that his results have benefited significantly from strand rates and sequencing luck. He has not been a 1.50 ERA pitcher. He has been a 3.65 FIP pitcher who has gotten the outcomes to break his way at a rate that will not hold through an entire season. The ERA is going to climb. The FIP is the more honest number.
Even accounting for that, a 3.65 FIP is a functional starting pitcher. Yordan Alvarez remains the most dangerous bat in the Astros lineup, and the Houston offense has been productive enough to win games behind starters who are keeping the game close rather than shutting it down. The Astros at +119 are not asking you to believe Arrighetti's ERA is real. They are asking you to believe 3.65 is enough.
Jameson Taillon has a 4.97 ERA. His FIP is 6.72. The ERA has been bad, but the FIP is worse. He has been a pitcher whose ERA has been propped up by moments where the damage was contained despite contact quality that should have produced more. That gap between 4.97 and 6.72 does not typically hold for an entire season.
The Cubs lineup at Wrigley gives Chicago the home environment and a .742 OPS that represents a real offensive advantage. Ian Happ and Alex Bregman have been the drivers of that offense, and when the lineup is scoring three or four runs it covers for a lot of pitching inconsistency. But Wrigley conditions can work against pitchers in both directions, and tonight the Cubs are starting a pitcher whose FIP says the ERA has been getting lucky.
Arrighetti's 1.50 ERA gets the attention, however Houston at plus money with a 3.07-run FIP edge is where the value is tonight.
Pick: Houston Astros +119
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Pick
Houston Astros +119
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