Published May 19, 7:15am ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated May 19, 7:15am ET
Updated May 19, 7:15am ET
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| Detroit Tigers | +105 |
| Cleveland Guardians | -126 |
Cleveland is 7-3 in their last ten. Parker Messick has been a significant part of why. His ERA is 2.35 and his FIP is 3.04, which means the results and the underlying stuff are telling the same story — not the same number, but the same direction. He has not needed a defense bailing him out of hard contact or strand rates running his way. He misses bats, limits walks, and has given the Guardians length in starts where the bullpen needed a break. Tonight he takes the ball against a Tigers team that has dropped eight of their last ten and is looking for something to change.
Jose Ramirez remains the offensive engine for Cleveland, and how he performs in the first few innings typically sets the tone for the team's run-scoring output. Kyle Manzardo and Josh Naylor give the lineup depth behind him that makes pitching around Ramirez complicated. Detroit is not going to get an easy game here from a lineup that has been clicking at a 7-3 clip.
The Tigers have won two of their last ten games. That is not a slump that reverses itself in one night based on who is pitching, and Keider Montero's FIP of 3.89 is not the kind of number that turns a 2-8 run into a win against a team playing this well. He has had stretches where his command has been sharp enough to keep games close, and his recent outings have shown some improvement in the walk department — but 3.89 FIP against a Guardians offense that has been producing is a tough spot.
Spencer Torkelson has been one of the more consistent power threats in the Tigers lineup. Riley Greene gives Detroit a left-handed bat capable of making Messick work early in counts. The Tigers have the individual pieces to score runs even during a cold stretch, and Montero gives them a reasonable chance to stay in this game. But staying in it and winning it are different requirements.
Detroit is 2-8. Messick's ERA and FIP both say he belongs on the right side of this matchup. Cleveland at -126 is not asking you to believe anything the numbers have not already shown. Take the Guardians.
Pick: Cleveland Guardians -126
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Pick
Cleveland Guardians -126
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