Published May 18, 3:38am ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated May 18, 3:38am ET
Updated May 18, 3:38am ET
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| Miami Marlins | -114 |
| Atlanta Braves | -105 |
JR Ritchie is 3.32 ERA on the season. That number has been doing real work in terms of keeping him in rotation discussions, but it has not been earned. His FIP is 6.20. A nearly three-run gap between ERA and FIP does not show up by accident. It accumulates through strand rates that have broken right, batted balls that have found gloves instead of gaps, and sequencing that has turned dangerous innings into quiet ones. Ritchie has been a 6.20 FIP pitcher dressed up as a 3.32 ERA pitcher, and the disguise will not hold indefinitely.
Atlanta carries a lineup advantage and has been the better offensive team for most of the year. Austin Riley and Matt Olson give the Braves real middle-of-the-order production, and that lineup is more than capable of scoring runs in Miami. The question is whether those runs will be enough when Ritchie eventually pitches to his true level — and the Marlins have a starter tonight who does not need a lucky ERA to hold up.
Max Meyer's ERA is 3.21. His FIP is 3.23. Two cents of difference between those numbers means he has not been propped up by anything. No strand rate magic, no defense bailing him out of hard contact, no sequencing that masked what he was actually throwing. The ERA is real because the FIP says it is. He commands four pitches, works into the seventh inning regularly, and has not had the kind of blow-up start this season that scrambles an ERA overnight.
The Marlins lineup has not been a consistent run-scoring machine this year, which is the honest counterargument to this pick. Miami will need to generate enough offense for Meyer's numbers to actually produce a win, and they have had nights this month where that did not happen. James Wood has been the most dangerous bat in the order when healthy. The Marlins at home have found ways to manufacture runs against pitchers in Ritchie's ERA range before.
Ritchie's ERA is 3.32. His FIP is 6.20. One of those numbers has been lying all season, and it is not the FIP. Miami at -114 with Meyer pitching to his numbers, while Atlanta sends a pitcher living three runs above his actual performance level is where the value sits tonight.
Pick: Miami Marlins -114
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Pick
Miami Marlins -114
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