Published Apr 7, 8:12pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Apr 7, 8:12pm ET
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Updated Apr 7, 8:18pm ET
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| Pittsburgh Pirates | -110 |
| San Diego Padres | +100 |
After 2 starts, Mitch Keller is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA. He's tossed 12 innings, allowed 9 hits, and 2 earned runs. The righty has issued 4 walks and struck out 7. In his last start against the Orioles, he got the win, but walked 4 in 6 innings.
A big year from their #2 starter behind Paul Skenes is critical to the Pirates having a chance at contention this season.
After a slow start at the plate, the Pirates have started hitting, boosting their hopes for a significant improvement from the past several years of nonstop losing.
Newcomer Ryan O'Hearn is off to a searing start with an OPS above 1.100. He faces his former San Diego teammates for the first time this season.
Oneil Cruz is batting above .300. Brandon Lowe's OPS is over 1.000. The club is still waiting for Marcell Ozuna to start hitting. He's well below .100 with a negative OPS+.
Against Padres start Michael King, O'Hearn is 1 for 5 with a home run. Brandon Lowe is 2 for 10 with a homer and 4 K's. Bryan Reynolds is 3 for 6 with 3 singles. Cruz is 1 for 3.
The Padres have less of a margin for error than they've had in recent years when they were star-studded. But with payroll constraints, they could go either way this season.
Given their short starting rotation, Michael King needs to
In his first start of the season, King was excellent against the Tigers, allowing 1 unearned run in 5 innings. In his second start against the Red Sox, he took the loss, allowing 4 earned runs in 5.2 innings.
The Padres have not hit at all this early season. Freddy Fermin, Jake Cronenworth, and Fernando Tatis, Jr. are all under .200. Manny Machado has a low batting average, but his OPS is around .800. Ramon Laureanon has slowed down after a hot start.
Against Keller, Nick Castellanos is 8 for 32 with 2 doubles and 2 homers. Cronenworth is 3 for 12 with a homer. Machado is 5 for 17 with a double and a homer. Gavin Sheets is 2 for 7 with a homer. Jackson Merrill is 3 for 6 with a triple and 4 RBI.
Ironically, the Pirates' prospects in 2026 might be better than the Padres for several reasons. Pittsburgh is in a less difficult division and they have an enthusiasm that San Diego does not because of the different approaches this past offseason. The Pirates were aggressive for a change and the Padres were not.
For this matchup, Keller has been pitching well. Still, the Padres have handled him in the past and if they are going to bust out of their offensive doldrums, it will be here.
The Padres will outscore the Pirates.
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Pittsburgh Pirates +100
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