Published Apr 3, 9:50pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Apr 3, 9:50pm ET
Shutterstock
Updated Apr 3, 9:50pm ET
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| Boston Red Sox | -143 |
| San Diego Padres | +130 |
The Red Sox got a much-needed win in their home opener against the Padres. They sit at 2-5, already 4 games behind the Yankees in the AL East.
For the second game of the set, they send top prospect Connelly Early to the mound at Fenway Park.
Early, who celebrated his 24th birthday on April 3, had an excellent spring training and continued that trend in his first regular season start. Against the Reds, he tossed 5.1 innings, allowed 5 hits, 1 earned run, walked 2, and struck out 6. He suffered a hard luck loss.
Boston has been almost universally inept at the plate so far. But Wilyer Abreu has 11 hits in 28 at-bats and 3 homers. Marcelo Mayer is hitting .294 with a 1.015 OPS.
The rest of the lineup has not been so fortunate. Roman Anthony is hitting .231, Willson Contreras is at .174, Trevor Story is hitting .121, Caleb Durbin is at .045. And so on.
They'll eventually start hitting, but this is obviously not how they wanted to break out of the gate after so many changes over the winter.
Boston has limited exposure to Padres starter Randy Vasquez. Abreu is 1 for 3. Contreras is 1 for 3 with a double. Jarren Duran is 1 for 2 with a single.
Padres righty Randy Vasquez established himself as a reliable starter in 2025 with a 2.3 bWAR in 28 appearances (26 starts). With the Padres not as star-studded as they've been in the recent past, they need Vasquez to continue that trend.
In his first start of 2026, he threw 6 innings, allowed 2 hits, walked 3, and struck out 8 in a win over the Tigers.
The Padres are in a tough division and have not hit early this season. Catcher Freddy Fermin is hitting a pathetic .071. Gavin Sheets is at .176. Xander Bogaerts is hitting .167. Fernando Tatis Jr. is hitting .238 with a .646 OPS.
Ramon Laureano is hitting .389 with 2 homers.
The Padres have never faced Early.
Both the Padres and Red Sox are having slow starts. The difference is that the Red Sox have the manpower and expectations to hit much better than they have. For the Padres, it is more of a question. Their starting rotation is short and the lineup is mediocre at best.
Early will overpower the Padres and give the Red Sox their second straight win in this series.
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Boston Red Sox -1.5 (+153)
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