Published Mar 28, 8:23pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Mar 28, 8:23pm ET
Shutterstock
Updated Mar 28, 8:23pm ET
|
|
|---|---|
| Chicago Cubs | -228 |
| Washington Nationals | +204 |
Righty Jake Irvin has been one of the Nationals' most reliable starter as they have moved forward with a slow rebuild. In 2025, he made 33 starts for the second consecutive season and posted a -0.4 bWAR with a 5.70 ERA. He led the majors in earned runs and home runs allowed with 114 and 38, respectively.
Irvin has shown some promise in the past, so perhaps the new Nats' braintrust on and off the field can maximize his abilities. He pitched well in the spring, tossing 13.1 innings, allowing 10 hits, 2 runs, walking 4, and striking out 15.
The Nats have gotten off to a slow start at the plate in their first two games, which they split with the Cubs. However, they have hit 4 homers with one each from Brady House, Joey Wiemer, James Wood, and Jacob Young.
Against Imanaga, Andres Chaparro is 2 for 5 with a 1.100 OPS. Nasim Nunez is 1 for 2. Wood is 2 for 6 with an .833 OPS.
Shota Imanaga was solid in 2025 with a 1.9 bWAR in 144.2 innings and 25 starts. But for the lefty, it was a step back from 2024 when he had a 3.0 bWAR, was an All-Star, finished 5th in the NL Cy Young Award voting, and 4th in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. That year, he went 15-3 in 29 starts, struck out 174 in 173.2 innings, and allowed 149 hits.
At the plate, center field Pete Crow-Armstrong, fresh off signing his 6-year, $115MM contract extension, has started hot. So far, he's batting .444 with 4 hits in 9 at-bats, and 2 stolen bases.
Michael Busch is batting .500 with 4 hits in 8 at-bats. Alex Bregman has started slowly with 1 hit in 9 at-bats. Miguel Amaya is 2 for 4 with a home run. Ian Happ is 2 for 10 with a homer.
Amaya is 1 for 4 with a home run against Irvin in his career. Busch is batting .364 with a 1.091 OPS and a homer. Crow-Armstrong is batting .429 with a 1.444 OPS and a homer. Happ is batting .286 with a 1.116 OPS. Dansby Swanson is batting .300 in 10 at-bats with a homer.
On paper, this is a mismatch. The Cubs have a ton of power and are facing a pitcher in Irvin who is one of the worst in baseball at surrendering home runs. Still, Imanaga can be up and down. Washington does have some young power bats like Wood. Chaparro has handled Imanaga in the past.
Still, Chicago should put up runs against Irvin. Imanaga will hold Washington down for the Cubs to take the rubber game in the first series of the season.
|
Pick
Chicago Cubs -228
|
New Player Bonus
50% up to $1000
|
