Published Mar 27, 8:36pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Mar 27, 8:36pm ET
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| Philadelphia Phillies | -119 |
| Texas Rangers | +108 |
Jacob deGrom, now 37, is coming off a very good first full year back after missing nearly two full seasons due to Tommy John surgery. In 2025, he had a 3.0 bWAR and went 12-8 in 30 starts. He tossed 172.2 innings, allowed 122 hits, walked 37, and struck out 185. He wasn't as dominant as he was with the Mets, but he was excellent.
Still, he's going to be 38 in June. He's not giving them 200 innings at this point in his career. This spring, he only tossed 3 innings, so he'll be on a strict pitch count against the Phillies.
In the Opening Day loss, Jake Burger went 3 for 4 with a home run. Corey Seager was 2 for 4 with a run scored.
Against Phillies starter Aaron Nola, Brandon Nimmo has 2 career homers in 58 at-bats. Joc Pederson has 1 homer and a .304 average in 23 at-bats.
In 2025, Nola was 5-10 with a -0.4 bWAR, and a 6.01 ERA in 17 starts. However, much of that could be chalked up to injuries. Fortunately for him and the Phillies, the injuries were not to his pitching arm. He had a sprained ankle and a stress fracture in his right rib.
When he's healthy, he's one of the most reliable pitchers in MLB.
During the spring, he tossed 6 innings, surrendered 8 hits, and 4 earned runs.
In their Opening Day win, Alec Bohm and Kyle Schwarber both homered. Brandon Marsh went 2 for 4 with 2 doubles. Bryce Harper was 0 for 4.
Against deGrom, Harper has 2 homers and an .873 OPS in 44 career at-bats. Bohm has 1 homer in 10 at-bats. Trea Turner has a .235 average and 1 homer in 51 at-bats. Schwarber is batting .059 in 17 at-bats.
Two of baseball's best starters of the past decade face off, but neither is at the pinnacle of their careers anymore. However, when they're on, they're plenty good.
Since it's so early in the season, deGrom will be watched closely. Unless he's very efficient, he will not be in the game for more than 5 innings or so. Nola, coming off a lost season due to several injuries and a truncated spring training, should not be expected to go too deeply into the game either.
Nola remains a question mark and several Rangers have performed well against him. Texas should come out on top in this game.
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Pick
Texas Rangers +108
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