Published Mar 23, 9:26pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Mar 23, 9:26pm ET
Grok AI
Updated Mar 23, 9:26pm ET
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| San Francisco Giants | +106 |
| New York Yankees | -117 |
Coming off a disappointing 2025 in which they lost in the ALDS to the eventual AL champion Blue Jays, the Yankees are essentially running back their 2025 roster with a few tweaks and hoping for a better result.
They start the season without regular shortstop Anthony Volpe. Two key starting pitchers, Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodon, are working their way back from injuries and are expected back later in the season.
For New York, Max Fried takes the start.
The lefty was everything the Yankees could have asked for when they signed him to a $218 million contract before last season. He went 19-5, had a 4.4 bWAR, struck out 189 in 195.1 innings, allowed 164 hits, and posted a 2.86 ERA. He was fourth in the AL Cy Young Award voting.
Jose Caballero will take Volpe's place. There's an argument that he should play regularly even when Volpe gets back.
For the Yankees against Giants starter Logan Webb, star outfielder Aaron Judge has a .429 batting average, a 1.985 OPS, and 2 homers. Third baseman Ryan McMahon has a .310 average, an .822 OPS, and 1 homer. First baseman Paul Goldschmidt has a .300 average with a homer and 5 RBI.
The Giants' past four seasons have epitomized mediocrity. They ranged between 79 wins and 81 wins in each season. Now, they have their third manager in four years after moving on from veteran manager Bob Melvin in favor of former University of Tennessee baseball coach Tony Vitello.
Vitello never played or coached professionally. It's certainly a risky hire for President of Baseball Operations Buster Posey. His status as an organizational legend will not protect him forever. If Vitello doesn't work out, he could find himself in trouble.
Righty Logan Webb gets the Opening Night start. He is under the radar as one of the better pitchers in baseball. He has finished in the top-6 in the NL Cy Young Award voting in the past three years. The year before, he finished 11th.
Last season, he led the majors in innings pitched with 207. He also led in hits allowed at 210. Still, he had a 3.22 ERA and a 3.8 bWAR. He struck out 224 batters to lead the NL.
San Francisco wasn't super aggressive this past offseason apart from the managerial change. They signed outfielder Harrison Bader and infielder Luis Arraez.
If they're going to jump into playoff contention in the tough NL West, they need stars like Willy Adames to perform better than he did in his first year by the Bay. He hit 30 homers, but batted only .225 after a horrific start.
They will also have star power hitter Rafael Devers for the full season.
Against Fried, Adames is batting .333 with a 1.000 OPS. Arraez is at .364 with an .826 OPS. Devers is batting .333 with a homer.
The Yankees and Giants are both big market teams with playoff aspirations and high payrolls. In context, both have been disappointing in their own way in recent years.
New York has chosen not to make substantive changes to its roster, hoping they get better performances at shortstop regardless of whether it's Caballero or Volpe as the starter, waiting for Cole to return, and banking on Judge challenging for a third straight MVP.
San Francisco is pushing its chips into the center of the table with the untested and largely unknown Vitello. Still, they are an older team and should score enough to be competitive.
For opening night, expect a big performance from Judge, who has had great success against Webb. Fried will hold the Giants down and hand the game over to the Yankees' deep bullpen for them to take home the opening night win on the road.
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Pick
New York Yankees -117
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