Published Mar 18, 8:38pm ET by
Paul Lebowitz - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Mar 18, 8:38pm ET
Grok AI
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| Houston Astros | +115 |
| New York Mets | -135 |
Kodai Senga struggled badly in 2025 despite respectable overall numbers. He walked too many hitters and surrendered 12 homers in 113.1 innings. By the end of the season, he'd been all but removed from the Mets' pitching staff. There was talk that he would be traded, but he expressed his preference to stay.
This spring, he has started 2 games, pitched 5.2 innings, allowed 3 hits, and given up 2 runs, both on homers. He's struck out 7 and walked 2. It's not great, but it's promising for a veteran pitcher who has been very good in the past.
The Mets have some decisions to make with non-roster invitees like Cristian Pache. This spring, the center fielder is hitting .464 with a 1.302 OPS, and 2 homers. Newcomer Jorge Polanco is batting .286 with a .971 OPS and 2 homers.
Francisco Alvarez is having a torrid spring, batting .381 with a .440 OBP, and a .667 slugging. Brett Baty has hit well as he adapts to a utility role, batting .360. Top prospect Carson Benge is making a push to make the team with a .406 average in 35 plate appearances.
In September 2025, the Astros' playoff spot seemed safe. However, a late slump cost them and they missed the playoffs.
They have made major changes to the roster this season, having lost starter Framber Valdez to free agency. Closer Josh Hader is expected to miss the start of the 2026 season with biceps tendinitis after having shoulder problems last season.
Against the Mets, they send non-roster invitee Peter Lambert to the mound. Lambert spent his career with the Rockies, so his career 6.28 ERA needs to be put into that context of playing with a horrific team in a pitcher's nightmare of a ballpark and city.
He spent 2025 in Japan playing for Yakult. He had a 3-12 record and a 4.20 ERA in 23 games. This spring, he's made 4 appearances, thrown 9 innings, given up 13 hits, and 1 earned run. He's struck out 7 and walked 4.
At the plate, Houston has struggled. Jose Altuve is batting .129 in 33 plate appearances. Yordan Alvarez has a .738 OPS with 1 home run.
Veteran Carlos Correa, in his first full season since returning to the Astros, is batting .316 with an .883 OPS. Cam Smith is hitting .273 with an .853 OPS.
Both teams are coming off disappointing seasons. The main roles are decided, but they still must decide on the back of their starting rotation and which non-roster invitees will make the team.
Senga will almost certainly start the season in the Mets' rotation. This is a critical start for Lambert as he is still on the bubble.
New York has been hitting well and should come out on top in West Palm Beach.
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Pick
New York Mets -135
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