NFL 2026: Can the Chiefs Rebound?

• The NFL offseason is underway and a key question is, can the Chiefs rebound?
• In the 7 seasons of Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, the Chiefs won 3 Super Bowls, lost 2 others, and lost 2 AFC Title Games before 2025’s 6-11 faceplant
• Oddsmakers are cautiously optimistic about a quick turnaround
• Given their ingrained issues, how realistic is it that they bounce back?

Chiefs’ 2026 Over-Under Odds for Wins

The Case for a Chiefs Rebound

The 2025 Chiefs had their worst season since 2012 when they went 2-14 under Romeo Crennel. Their quarterbacks that year were Matt Cassel and Brady Quinn. Their run of success since Andy Reid took over as head coach is mind-boggling, particularly in today’s NFL with the salary cap, picking late in the draft, willful parity, and the wear and tear of going deep into the playoffs every year.

Still, when a team has a Hall of Fame head coach in Reid, a Hall of Fame QB in Mahomes, and a well-regarded organization, turnarounds can happen quickly…if the bad year was an anomaly.

Here are the potential justifications for a Chiefs rebound:

Good Health

In Week 15 against the Chargers, Mahomes blew out his knee and needed surgery. He is expected to be ready to start the 2026 season. His backup, Gardner Minshew, also got hurt. By the end of the season, they started Chris Oladokun, who was 28 and had been a practice squad player.

Late in the season, they were also without wide receiver Rashee Rice, who suffered a concussion. Running back Isiah Pacheco was clearly not at 100 percent throughout the season after several injuries, including a fractured fibula in 2024 and a knee injury in 2025. In the same game in which they lost Mahomes, linebacker Leo Chenal suffered a season-ending shoulder injury.

Simply having a healthy Mahomes, Pacheco, Rice, and Chenal significantly improves the team even if they don’t make any other moves.

Cap Space, a High Draft Pick, and a Return to the Past with Bieniemy

The Chiefs cleared $9 million in cap space by cutting veteran defensive end Michael Danna. They also restructured Mahomes’ contract, clearing almost $44 million.

With that cap space, they can attract free agents to get younger, improve the running game, boost the pass rush, and better protect Mahomes.

KC is set to pick 9th in the upcoming NFL Draft. That is their highest pick since 2013, when they had the 1st overall pick and took the solid but unspectacular offensive tackle Eric Fisher. Fisher was a 2X Pro Bowler and won a Super Bowl.

Offensive coordinator Matt Nagy was replaced by the Chiefs’ former OC, Eric Bieniemy.

Mahomes’ numbers have steadily declined since 2022, the last year in which Bieniemy was his OC. Of course, it’s unfair to solely blame Nagy, particularly since the Chiefs won one Super Bowl and lost one in the two years after Bieniemy’s departure.

But the numbers are the numbers. The QB dropped in many key categories, including passing yards, TD passes, passer rating, TD%, and completions.

Beiniemy’s departure was a mistake for him and the Chiefs. If he felt he needed to get experience away from Reid and Mahomes to raise his profile for a head coaching gig, it didn’t work. As the Commanders’ assistant head coach and OC, he jumped onto Ron Rivera’s sinking ship just as owner Josh Harris took control of the team from the despised Dan Snyder.

The Commanders’ players were unaccustomed to Bieniemy’s hard coaching. Worse, Rivera took the players’ side over his assistant. Bieniemy was doomed right there and then.

After bouncing to UCLA as their offensive coordinator and associate HC, then to the Bears coaching running backs for Ben Johnson, he’s back in KC.

The Chiefs are used to him and vice versa. His style of coaching will likely be welcomed rather than framed as a source of discord from entitled players.

The Case That 2025 Was a Signal, Not the Noise

Just as it can be argued that the Chiefs’ 2025 season was an injury-plagued campaign that should be tossed out in the context of their excellence, it can also be argued that they are on the decline and are simply trying to patch it together to see if they can make one more run before substantive changes need to be made.

Here’s why the 2025 season might not have been a minor glitch.

They’re Old and Worn Down

Mahomes was remarkably healthy in his first seven and three-quarter years as a starter in the league, especially with his style of play where he runs the ball relatively frequently. Of course, any defender who looks at him cross-eyed is hit with a 15-yard penalty, but that doesn’t eliminate the cumulative damage that comes from getting hit.

Knee injuries are generally recoverable with limited long-term impact, specifically for a player whose game is not based on his speed. But Mahomes is 30. It’s fair to ask if he’s starting his decline.

Although they cut Danna, they are waiting out Travis Kelce’s retirement decision and want him back. He hasn’t shown his hand yet, but it sounds as if he kinda wants to play if he can.

He’ll be 37 shortly after the 2026 season begins. At a certain point, it’s time to move on not just for him, but for the team. He played at a very high level in 2025, but does appear slowed.

Chris Jones will be 32 in July and seemed apathetic last season. Will he be motivated to push for another title? If the hunger is gone, it’s gone. With 3 Super Bowls, the 7X Pro Bowler, and 3X All-Pro is headed for the Hall of Fame. It’s understandable if he’s doing just enough to be passable, but not going beyond that to be great.

Their annual deep playoff runs added a full season of games to their slate. It showed in 2025.

The AFC West is Very Tough

The AFC West had two playoff teams, the Broncos and Chargers. The Raiders promise to be better in 2026 under new head coach Klint Kubiak.

Can the Chiefs overcome that rough division with hungry rivals?

They will also play the NFC West, the AFC East, the Bengals, and the Falcons.

This is not an easy schedule. Even though the Chiefs are coming off a 6-11 season, teams are still gunning for them.

It will likely take 12 wins to take the division title and probably 10 wins to make the playoffs. There are more ways for the Chiefs to fall below that than there are for them to surpass it.

This Has the Feeling of a Final Run

The Chiefs were left with few options after the 2025 season but to run it back and hope that their bad season was a blip. If Kelce wants to come back, they’re not telling him no.

Dumping Jones could cause more problems than it solves.

Mahomes isn’t going to rush back and jeopardize his long-term future if the team doesn’t show full commitment to winning.

And Reid has been coaching every single year since 1982, when he started as a graduate assistant at Brigham Young. He’s been a head coach in the league since 1999 and will be 68 in March. He’s not coaching through a rebuild, especially after he watched what’s happened to Bill Belichick, whose legacy is being destroyed by the day.

The Chiefs are moving forward with hope more than conviction. Given the realities, it’s probably not going to work. They’re delaying the inevitable because they have no other choice.