Published Dec 4, 4:58am ET by
Alex Dudley - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Dec 4, 4:58am ET
Credit: Shutterstock
Updated Dec 4, 4:58am ET
The second leg in the semi-final stage of the Liga MX Apertura playoffs is staged this weekend. Find the latest odds and our Toluca vs. Monterrey picks here.
Monterrey will hold the advantage ahead of the second leg on Saturday after landing a 1-0 home success on Wednesday evening.
A cagey affair saw chances kept to a minimum. However, the hosts claimed the advantage just before the half time break, with German Berterame netting the important winner. Toluca will sense as though they are still in the tie, and home advantage could be crucial.
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|
|---|---|
| Toluca | -150 |
| The Draw | +337 |
| Monterrey | +352 |
All of the pressure this weekend will be on Toluca, as they look to salvage their spot in the playoffs.
They finished top of the regular season standings, but unlike in the regular campaign, they looked short of attacking quality in Wednesday’s first leg. Despite that, being back in front of their own fans should be beneficial to their chances.
Toluca have scored an average of 2.7 goals per game at home this season, and they have failed to score in just 10% of their fixtures. However, their defensive record will give Monterrey confidence, as they have kept clean sheets in just 30% of their home games.
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Monterrey would have been aware of how crucial the opening leg was and of their need for an advantage.
However, the experienced team rose to the occasion, and were able to dominate proceedings. Monterrey had chances to extend their advantage in the second period, and that could yet be something that comes back to haunt them.
But, it is worth noting that all five of their defeats this season have come on the road. They have conceded an average of 2.2 goals per game, which is vastly higher than their average of 0.9 conceded in home games.
| TOTAL | Toluca | Monterrey | DRAWS | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 53 | 17 | 17 | 19 |
| Goals | 140 | 74 | 66 |
Monterrey’s away form throughout the season has been poor, and their disastrous defensive record is hard to dismiss.
However, the experience that they boast could be pivotal to their chances on Saturday. It could give them the platform that they require to get over the line, meaning that there could be value in the draw this weekend.
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Pick
The Draw (+337)
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