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Bills vs Jaguars NFL Pick: AFC Rivals Eye Path to 1st Super Bowl Win (Jan 11)

Published Jan 5, 7:23pm ET by

Keith McCarthy - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer

Last updated Jan 5, 7:23pm ET

Pick status
Josh Allen

Shutterstock

Updated Jan 6, 7:09am ET

  • The Bills earned the AFC's 6-seed after improving to 12-5 following their win over the Jets.
  • Jacksonville took down the Titans, claiming the AFC South division title and a 13-4 record.
  • These two teams last faced off on September 23, 2024, in a game that the Bills won 47-10.

The Bills and Jaguars face off this week in an intriguing AFC playoff matchup. Both teams are still seeking their first Super Bowl title, raising the stakes as they enter a wide-open AFC playoff field.

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills Overview Watch On: CBS

DATE & TIME

SUNDAY, JANUARY 11, 2026 @ 1:00 PM ET
Jacksonville Jaguars
EVERBANK STADIUM
JACKSONVILLE, FL
Buffalo Bills
GAME ODDS
BetOnline
Jacksonville Jaguars +1.5 (-105)
Buffalo Bills -1.5 (-105)

Bills Finally Face Mahomes-Less Playoff Path

The Bills had their 5-year AFC East division title streak snapped by the Patriots on Sunday. Despite failing to win the division, they still posted a 12-5 record and return to the postseason. Buffalo was eliminated by the Chiefs in four of the five seasons during their division title streak, giving them a unique chance to avoid elimination this season with the Chiefs missing the playoffs. They face an uphill battle on the road, though.

Jaguars and Trevor Lawrence are Red-Hot

Under 1st-year head coach Liam Coen, the Jaguars posted their second-best record in team history, their first season with over 12 wins since 1999. They started the season with a 5-4 record, mostly due to the continued struggles of QB Trevor Lawrence. However, the Jaguars have won 8 games in a row since, with Lawrence posting a 106 passer rating and 19-5 TD/INT ratio in that span. He enters this one playing at a near-MVP level.

Bills vs Jaguars NFL Pick

The Bills and Jaguars met once before in the Wild Card round, back in 2018. The Jaguars managed to win 10-3, thanks to their "Sacksonville" defense. Both teams are far better now than they were eight years ago, especially on offense. With a QB matchup of Josh Allen vs Trevor Lawrence instead of Tyrod Taylor vs Blake Bortles, expect this to be a higher scoring game. Ultimately, Buffalo's playoff experience gives them the edge.

Pick
Buffalo Bills -1.5
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