#5 Oregon vs #4 Texas Tech NCAA Pick: CFP Quarterfinal at the Orange Bowl (Jan 1)

Published Dec 26, 4:20pm ET by

Gabriel Kozlow - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer

Last updated Dec 26, 4:20pm ET

Pick status
football

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  • Oregon (12-1) won 51-34 against JMU in their last game.
  • Texas Tech (12-1) thrashed BYU with a 34-7 score in their last game.
  • These teams last played in 2023, with Oregon winning this match.

We have one of the most anticipated games of the year in the CFP Quarterfinal at the Orange Bowl between Oregon and Texas Tech. This will be the fourth all-time meeting between these teams, with Oregon having won the previous three games.

OREGON DUCKS vs. TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS Overview Watch On: ESPN

DATE & TIME

THURSDAY, JANUARY 1, 2026 @ 12:00 PM ET
OREGON DUCKS
Hard Rock Stadium
Miami Gardens, FL
TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS
GAME ODDS
BetOnline
OREGON DUCKS -125
TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS +105

Red Hot Ducks to Use Top Offense

The Oregon Ducks head into this game with a 12–1 record and a convincing 51–34 win over JMU. The Ducks will be looking to maintain their high offensive average of 39.2 points per game, along with their top-10 defense in yards and points allowed. This will be their second straight quarterfinal appearance in the playoffs.

Oregon’s sole loss this season came against Indiana, the current No. 1 seed and team to beat. They’ll be led by QB Dante Moore, who has thrown 28 touchdown passes this year with over 3,000 passing yards. On the ground, Noah Whittington will look to add to his 6 rushing touchdowns and provide balance to the offense.

Big 12 Champs To Apply Ruthless Attack

Texas Tech earned a first-round bye thanks to their No. 4 seed and 12–1 record. They won the Big 12 title by beating BYU, which was their first conference championship since 1955. The Ducks will need to pay close attention to Texas Tech’s offense, which averages 42.5 points per game and 480.3 yards per game, as well as a defense that ranks 3rd in total yards allowed. They also lead the nation in forced and recovered fumbles. Yikes.

David Bailey, one of their linebackers, leads the team with 13.5 sacks. Another defensive standout, Jacob Rodriguez, has 117 tackles so far this season. The Red Raiders will be looking to keep forcing fumbles against a well-coached, high-powered Oregon offense.

#5 Oregon vs #4 Texas Tech NCAA Pick

The Hard Rock Stadium in Miami will be fully engaged with two amazing teams that can both take it all the way. The Oregon Ducks are small favorites at -2.5 on the spread. The over/under is 52.5, and the moneyline for Oregon is -125.

We feel Oregon is just a bit too strong overall, even though their rivals are close in quality. Our pick is Oregon -2.5 on the spread.

Pick
Oregon -2.5
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