UFC Vegas 109 Picks for Roman Dolidze vs. Anthony Hernandez and Other Fights on August 9

UFC Vegas 109 isn’t just another Apex event. Our prediction is that the August 9 event is going to deliver. We can see some betting upsets happening, so if you’re a bettor who loves plus-money odds (who doesn’t?), you need to check out our UFC Vegas 109 picks.

We’ll start with the main event (Dolidze vs. Hernandez), show you a couple of top upset picks (Fili vs. Rodriguez and Johns vs. Matsumoto), and reveal our predictions for all other fights. Sounds good? Let’s start!

Dolidze vs. Hernandez Prediction – Can “The Caucasian” Grind Out a Win?

Our UFC Vegas 109 pick for the main event is Roman Dolidze. Sounds strange given that his odds are +270, but hear us out. “The Caucasian” is hard as they come, the evidence being that he’s got no losses by either KO/TKO or submission. This is particularly impressive given that he’s fought some of the most dangerous middleweight (and light heavyweights) in the world.

He’s got a background in grappling, but inside the cage, his strongest weapon seems to be striking. Like other Georgian fighters, he too has a gas tank that can keep him grinding for the full 25 rounds. If the fight goes the distance, our prediction is that the judges will score in his favor.

Fili vs. Rodriguez – Our Top UFC Vegas 109 Upset Pick

Andre Fili’s professional MMA career started in 2009, and he joined the UFC four years later. He’s 24-12-1 overall, and he’s fought the who’s who of the featherweight division – Max Holloway, Yair Rodríguez, and others.

Fili’s UFC Vegas 109 opponent, Christian Rodriguez, has been in the fighting business since 2019, and he joined the UFC in 2022. His record is impressive at 12-3, but there’s a caveat. This guy has never won a UFC fight against someone who had more than three wins in this promotion at the time of the fight.  

That said, Fili’s got way more experience than anyone Cee-Rod has ever fought before. We think that might be the thing to decide the August 9 fight.

Johns vs. Matsumoto – The Brazilian’s Gonna Bleed Again

Twenty-year-old Jean Matsumoto is a fantastic prospect with plenty of weapons in his arsenal. He’s a dangerous fighter with great athleticism, but there’s a problem – he seems to get hurt easily.

In fact, his only professional loss (against Rob Font in February) happened because he suffered a cut on his face. He went 7-0 with takedowns in that fight but still lost by a split decision. We think that something similar might happen on August 9, as Miles is someone who knows how to hurt people.

UFC Vegas 109 Picks for All Remaining Fights

• Steve Erceg vs. Ode’ Osbourne – Steve Erceg
• Iasmin Lucindo vs. Angela Hill – Iasmin Lucindo   
• Eryk Anders vs. Christian Leroy Duncan – Christian Leroy Duncan
• Julius Walker vs. Raffael Cerqueira – Julius Walker                            
• Elijah Smith vs. Toshiomi Kazama – Elijah Smith                  
• Joselyne Edwards vs. Priscila Cachoeira – Joselyne Edwards                                    
• Uroš Medić vs. Gilbert Urbina – Uroš Medić                                                          
• Gabriella Fernandes vs. Julija Stoliarenko – Gabriella Fernandes

Excluding those three fights we previewed in detail, all of our UFC Vegas 109 picks are backing betting favorites. Still, we’re not 100% confident about a couple of those. The picks we’d stay away from are Iasmin Lucindo and Christian Leroy Duncan.

The reason we think Lucindo will struggle is that she’s facing Angela Hill, who’s a hell of a striker with decent TD defense. Lucindo, on the other hand, is a great wrestler, but striking isn’t her forte.

With Christian Leroy Duncan, you never know what to expect. Some MMA fans think his fight IQ and strategy is not that great, but there’s no arguing that he’s an incredible striker. We think he can knock Eryk Anders out, but we also think there is a chance that Anders outsmarts him.