Published Apr 5, 7:14pm ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Apr 5, 7:14pm ET
Updated Apr 5, 7:30pm ET
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| Pittsburgh Pirates | -195 |
| San Diego Padres | +165 |
German Marquez signed a one-year contract with the Padres in February 2026 after posting the worst ERA in baseball during 2025. The 31-year-old right-hander went 3-16 with a 6.70 ERA and 1.71 WHIP across 126.1 innings in 26 starts for the Rockies. In his Padres debut on March 31 against the Giants, Marquez allowed 4 runs on 8 hits over just 3 innings. His 12.00 ERA and 3.00 WHIP through one start put him well above the 10.00 ERA FADE threshold.
San Diego is hitting just .192 as a team with 3 home runs through eight games. Ramon Laureano leads with 2 homers and a .308 average. The Padres sit 3-5 and just won 3-2 at Boston to snap a two-game losing streak.
Bubba Chandler will take the mound for this matchup. He threw a no-hitter through 4.1 innings in his first MLB start on March 31 at Milwaukee. The 23-year-old right-hander walked 6 batters but allowed zero hits while striking out 6 in a no-decision.
Pittsburgh is hitting .230 with 10 home runs through eight games. Oneil Cruz leads with 3 homers and a .290 average. Ryan O'Hearn is batting .360 with 7 RBI. The Pirates sit 5-3 and are riding a 4-game winning streak. They're 2-0 at home
This line is begging you to fade it. Marquez sits at 12.00 ERA. He posted the worst ERA in baseball in 2025 at 6.70, went winless in his final 11 starts, and just allowed 8 hits in 3 innings in his Padres debut. The Pirates at -195 feels heavy, but Marquez's 12.00 ERA and Chandler's form make this a clear quality mismatch.
Pick: Pirates -195
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Pick
Pirates -195
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