Published Apr 5, 9:09am ET by
Demilade Adelekun - Betting Preview Analyst and Sports Writer
Last updated Apr 5, 9:09am ET
Updated Apr 5, 9:09am ET
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| New York Yankees | -300 |
| Miami Marlins | +238 |
Chris Paddack joined the Marlins on a one-year, $4 million deal after bouncing between Minnesota and Detroit last season. In his 2026 debut against the Yankees on April 3, Paddack allowed 8 hits and 2 home runs over 4 innings in an 8-2 loss. His 18.00 ERA and career 0-3 record against New York (8.47 ERA in 4 appearances) paint a troubling picture.
Miami is hitting .284 with 8 home runs through eight games. Liam Hicks leads with 3 homers, 12 RBI and a .400 average. Xavier Edwards is batting .467 with a .633 slugging percentage. The Marlins sit 5-3 overall but are 0-2 on the road after losses of 8-2 and 9-7 at Yankee Stadium.
Against Fried, current Marlins batters have limited history. Most face him for the first time in the American League. Fried is 6-4 with a 4.23 ERA in 16 career appearances versus Miami, all from his Atlanta days.
Through two starts in 2026, Fried has been perfect: 13.1 innings, 0 earned runs, 5 hits, 2 walks, 10 strikeouts. He shut out the Giants over 6.1 innings in his debut, then blanked the Mariners for 7 scoreless frames.
New York is hitting .222 with 8 home runs through eight games. Aaron Judge has 3 homers and 7 RBI. Giancarlo Stanton is batting .393 with a .571 slugging percentage. Ben Rice has 2 homers and 8 RBI. The Yankees sit 7-1 and have won four straight.
Against Paddack, current Yankees batters own the matchup. Judge is 2 for 5 with a home run. Stanton is 1 for 3. Several others have hit him hard in limited samples.
Paddack's 18.00 ERA and 0-3 record against New York make this a nightmare spot. Fried hasn't allowed a run through 13.1 innings and the Yankees have won the first two games decisively. The Marlins have shown some offensive life with Hicks and Edwards, but facing an ace on this kind of roll at Yankee Stadium is a different challenge. New York should close out the sweep.
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Pick
Yankees -300
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