World Cup Picks: Group D Winner Odds, Preview & Prediction

The majority of the focus in this summer’s 2026 World Cup will be on Group D, as the hopes of a nation will hinge on the performances of the United States. However, Mauricio Pochettino’s side could face tricky assignments after being drawn alongside Australia, Paraguay, and Turkey. Find our World Cup Group D picks here.

World Cup: Group D Winner Odds

Group D World Cup Schedule

Matchday 1

• USA vs. Paraguay (June 12)
• Australia vs. Turkey (June 13)

Matchday 2

• USA vs. Australia (June 19)
• Turkey vs. Paraguay (June 19)

Matchday 3

• Turkey vs. USA (June 25)
• Paraguay vs. Australia (June 25)

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World Cup Group D Teams

USA

Everything that Mauricio Pochettino had done over the last two years has been leading to this summer, making the USA the favored nation in the Group Winner betting for the World Cup. Hopes will be high for the U.S. to achieve their best-ever showing, having previously failed to progress any further than the round of 16 in their last three appearances.

Performances have been mixed since June last year, losing the CONCACAF Gold Cup final against Mexico, and suffering comprehensive losses against Belgium and Portugal this year. There have been flashes of promise, notably a 5-1 win over Uruguay last November. If the USA is to win Group D, they will need to find the right balance, and hope Folarin Balogun is in the form shown in France’s Ligue 1 in 2025-26.

Paraguay

Paraguay will be making their ninth appearance at the World Cup this summer, with Gustavo Alfaro’s side an interesting outsider in the odds to win Group D. The South American nation showed quality in the qualifying campaign, winning seven of their 18 fixtures, and losing just four times.

A key strength is their defensive record, as Paraguay allowed just ten goals during a competitive campaign in South America. Expectations should be raised following recent wins over Greece and Mexico, but their ability to compete with the very best nations remains in doubt following defeats against South Korea and Morocco since last October.

Australia

Tony Popovic’s Australia will be the big outsiders to win Group D at this summer’s World Cup. There is a good blend of experienced and youthful stars, including veteran goalkeeper Mathew Ryan, and bright young striker Nestory Irankunda. Irankunda has been a revelation for the national team, scoring five in 13 appearances.

After coasting through qualification, the Socceroos suffered three successive defeats on American soil against the USA, Venezuela, and Colombia. They have since bounced back to winning ways after scoring six goals in wins over Cameroon and Curacao. Their attacking numbers indicate that they could upset the odds in Group D, but their defensive metrics aren’t positive after failing to keep a clean sheet in four of their last five.

Turkey

With players such as Hakan Calhanoglu and Arda Guler, Turkey certainly have the quality within their ranks to win Group D. The nation will be making their return to the competition for the first time since finishing third in 2002, but they were forced to rely on a playoff to book their spot in the U.S., beating Romania and Kosovo in the March internationals.

But, Turkey have a proven record of positive displays against higher-ranked nations, including a notable 2-2 draw in Spain in November. However, their lack of performance at major tournaments in recent years is a concern, having failed to make it out of the group stage when looking like a potential dark horse contender at EURO 2020.

World Cup Group D Winner Picks

Any fans of the USMNT thinking that this will be an easy group will need to think again. Turkey’s record against the USA is positive, while Australia has the attacking threat to upset the odds. While we expect the USMNT to qualify, they may need to settle for second spot behind the defensively solid Paraguay.