Pirates vs Brewers MLB Player Prop Picks (Jun 23)

The Pittsburgh Pirates (31–48) visit the Milwaukee Brewers (43–35) for Game 1 of a three-game series. The Brewers enter as strong favorites off a 57% implied win probability, while the Pirates aim to stay within reach. The total is set at 8.5 runs in another pitching-focused matchup. First pitch is at 7:40 p.m. ET at American Family Field.

• RHP Chad Patrick (Brewers, 3–7, 3.50 ERA, 76 K in 79.2 IP) brings a 5-start quality streak, facing RHP Braxton Ashcraft (Pirates, 1–0, 1.54 ERA, 10 K in 11.2 IP) making his MLB debut.
• Brewers are –180 moneyline favorites; the Pirates sit at +150 underdogs. Both teams lean toward the under on total runs.
• The Brewers have been on the uptick, four-game winning streak. The Pirates’ offense has struggled

Pittsburgh Pirates Player Prop Pick: Chad Patrick

A well-rounded club on a four-game winning streak at home. Patrick brings average 8.6 K/9 and five quality starts, and Milwaukee ranks 9th in scoring (4.6 R/G). Their balanced offense and strong pitching keep them in control.

• Patrick has recorded at least 6 K in five of his last six starts at home, averaging 6.3 K in that span.
• The Pirates rank 9th in league strikeout rate and rank last in wOBA and ISO, a prime matchup.
• High whiff upside against one of the weakest lineups supports this over.

Milwaukee Brewers Player Prop Pick: Braxton Ashcraft

Last in MLB with just 3.3 R/G, Pittsburgh’s offense is rudderless. Ashcraft showed promise in relief and will debut, but depth and contact issues remain. The team’s low scoring floor caps risk for opposing pitchers.

• In limited MLB action Ashcraft has allowed just one earned run over 11.2 innings.
• The Pirates’ contact approach and low scoring projection (<4 R/G) limit his exposure to big innings.
• Even if he struggles, early bullpen support is likely, making an under on ER seem safe.