Padres vs Cardinals MLB Player Prop Picks (Jul 24)

The San Diego Padres head to Busch Stadium for Game 1 of their four-game set against the St. Louis Cardinals. Yu Darvish (0–2, 6.08 ERA) toes the rubber for the Padres, while Sonny Gray (9–4, 4.04 ERA) starts for St. Louis. Cleveland swing-heavy offenses await in what’s projected as a tight pitching matchup under an 8‑run total.

• Darvish has struggled since his return, allowing Over 2.5 earned runs in his last two outings.
• Gray boasts a strong 2.84 ERA at home vs. a 5.84 ERA on the road—plus St. Louis holds a 29‑20 home record.
• The Cardinals are slight moneyline favorites (~–140 to –157) with the Over/Under set at 8 runs.

San Diego Padres Player Prop Pick: Yu Darvish

Darvish has struggled in his comeback, allowing multiple earned runs in each of his first three starts. Vegas odds have bumped his ER lines given this trend, making Over 2.5 ER a sharp play against a Cardinals lineup batting .303 lifetime vs. him (including Nolan Arenado’s .391 clip—4 HR off Darvish).

• Allowed 3+ ER in each of his first three returns (0–2, 6.08 ERA).
• Cardinals own .303 batting average lifetime vs. Darvish.
• Track record of early damage—models simulate high ER outcomes.

St. Louis Cardinals Player Prop Pick: Manny Machado

While often favored, St. Louis is still dealing with offensive inconsistency. A sharper prop is wagering on Manny Machado to go over 1.5 total bases. He’s hitting .285 with 18 HR and has an excellent track record vs. Gray—11 hits in 30 AB with two homers.

• 11-for-30 vs. Gray, including 2 HR and 11 RBI.
• Gray has a high HR/9 (1.54) and has shown early trouble.
• +118 odds provide solid ROI on multi-base contact.