Next Pope Odds: Pope Francis Successor Odds and Prediction (2025)

• Pope Francis passed away on April 21, 2025, after serving 12 years as the pontiff.
• Voting for the next Pope starts on May 7 and is expected to take several weeks.
• Pietro Parolin and Luis Antonio Tagle currently lead the field of potential Popes.

After a dozen years of service, Pope Francis passed away this April. His replacement will be chosen this month as the Vatican conclave meets to vote on a new candidate. The new Pope must receive a majority of the votes, making the moderate candidates more likely to advance.

Next Pope Odds

Next Pope Prediction

In a highly politicized global climate, even the Pope isn’t an exception. Much of the intrigue surrounding the next Pope revolves around if he will be progressive towards LGBTQ+, divorced, and other non-traditional groups of Catholics, as Francis was. Conversely, the new Pope could revert to the Pope John Paul/Benedict era of traditionalism with a stronger focus on scripture.

It seems unlikely the next Pope will be regressive when compared to Francis, especially as the Catholic church aims to be more inclusive and put past scandals behind them. On the other hand, a Pope more progressive than Francis could face steep opposition in the conclave. With a need to earn a majority of the votes, a moderate like Parolin is the most likely to be selected.