Mercury vs Valkyries WNBA Player Prop Picks (Jul 14)

The Phoenix Mercury (14–6) travel to the Chase Center to face the Golden State Valkyries (10–10) in a pivotal Western Conference matchup Monday at 10 PM ET. Phoenix has won 8 of its last 10 games and remains one of the league’s top offenses, while Golden State—fresh off a high-scoring 104–102 loss to Las Vegas—looks to defend home court.

• Mercury rank 2nd in the WNBA in scoring (84.6 PPG), while the Valkyries boast the 2nd-best defense (78.6 PPG allowed).
• Phoenix has covered the 158.5 over line in 4 of its last 5 games, and the total has been breached in 3 of Golden State’s last 5 at home.
• Valkyries are slight favorites at –115 ML, with Phoenix at +102; spread sits at ±1.5, total at 158.5.

Phoenix Mercury Player Prop Pick: Alyssa Thomas

Alyssa Thomas continues to shine as Phoenix’s do-it-all floor general, recently posting a career-high 29 points in a win over the Lynx. She averages 15.3 PPG, 9.5 APG, and 7.5 RPG, flirting with triple-doubles. Versatility and usage make her a top value play.

• Recent performance: 29 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists in latest win.
• Usage & consistency: Holds elite all-around numbers, a rare “triple‑double threat” nightly.
• Opposition defense: Valkyries rank 4th overall but still vulnerable to versatile forwards.

Golden State Valkyries Player Prop Pick: Tiffany Hayes

Tiffany Hayes has been a reliable scoring option for the Valkyries, hitting 13+ points in 8 of 13 games, including 16 in their recent matchup with Las Vegas. Against a Phoenix team missing key scorers, she should continue to get her looks and scoring opportunities.

• Scoring consistency: Eight games with 13+ points this season.
• Matchup opportunity: Phoenix is shorthanded (Sabally, Copper out) and focused on other scoring options.
• Odds & value: Prop line has dipped, but her role and volume support the pick.